Spain's right well ahead in polls for November 29 election

The conservative People's Party (PP) sits at 30% in the latest PolitPro weighted average, with PSOE at 26.9% and Vox at 18.6%, according to polling data compiled as Spain prepares for its snap election on November 29. The governing PSOE-Sumar alliance would win just 40.9% of seats—far short of the 176 needed for an absolute majority in the 350-seat Congress of Deputies. This arithmetic means Sánchez's survival depends entirely on maintaining his fragile coalition with Sumar and hoping for cooperation from regional parties, while the PP must pair with Vox to reach the 210-seat threshold that PolitPro's Monte Carlo simulations project as necessary for governing stability.

The electoral landscape has shifted dramatically since July, with both main parties declining while Vox has gained over six percentage points. Frente Amplio emerges as a new force at 6.7%, while Podemos and other left-wing formations struggle below the 3% threshold that determines parliamentary entry. The state-run CIS poll from October stands as an outlier, placing PSOE at 34% versus PP's 22.2%, suggesting significant methodological variation across polling institutes. What unites the broader polling consensus is the recognition that Spain faces a fragmented parliament regardless of outcome, with no single party capable of governing alone.

First, Prime Minister Sánchez called the snap election after his housing reform failed in Congress in October, triggering mass protests over rents and evictions that voters clearly view as central to their concerns. Second, last month's deadly train crash that claimed multiple lives and forced Transport Minister Oscar Puente's resignation has become a defining moment, with polls showing it damaged Sánchez's standing while potentially benefiting the PP. Third, the left-wing parties failed to agree on a unified candidate list for Frente Amplio, weakening the governing coalition's base and reducing Sánchez's options for forming a stable parliamentary majority.

The economic implications extend beyond politics. Natixis analysis reveals Spain has outperformed the euro area since 2022, with average annual GDP growth of 3.7% compared to 1.7% for the bloc, driven by strong labor markets and EU recovery funds. Asset managers expect any change in government to have only limited impact on growth, noting that both major parties favor tax cuts and private investment incentives while maintaining prudent fiscal stances. The real question for investors is not whether Spain's economy will survive a government change, but which party's policies will better address the housing crisis that triggered this election in the first place.