Escalating tensions in the Middle East have been further complicated by conflicting reports regarding potential negotiations to de-escalate the current conflict. The situation is creating uncertainty in financial and energy markets.
On Saturday, President Donald Trump threatened to “annihilate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz was not reopened within 48 hours.
However, on Monday, Trump unexpectedly announced a five-day pause in those threats, stating that the United States had engaged in “productive” talks with Iran.
Trump later told CNN that Iran was seeking “to make a deal.” He claimed the U.S. Had spoken with a “high-ranking” official within the Iranian regime, without revealing their identity, and that there were “significant commonalities,” though he provided no further details.
What was Iran’s response? Iran denied any direct conversations with the United States. Reports had circulated suggesting Washington had made contact with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, but Ghalibaf himself refuted the claims.
“No negotiation has taken place with America, and fake news is used to manipulate financial and oil markets and acquire out of the trap they and Israel are in,” he wrote on X.
What might Iran want from a deal? Having been targeted in two previous attacks by the United States and Israel whereas talks were underway, Tehran will likely be deeply skeptical of Washington, according to Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
“The Iranians have been ‘Trumped’ twice already,” Vakil told CNN. “They will be extremely skeptical.”
Iran will want “credible guarantees” that it will not be attacked by either the United States or Israel, she added.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has previously stated that Iran’s conditions for ending the war include reparations for destruction. Iran has also insisted it will not relinquish its arsenal or its missile and drone industry, which Trump had vowed to “reduce to rubble.”
How are others responding? Some are seeking to capitalize on the limited prospects for diplomacy. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has spoken with Iran and Egypt, as well as the United States and the European Union, about ending the war, a Turkish diplomatic source told CNN.
Meanwhile, Pakistan says it is “ready to host talks” between the United States and Iran. Sources told CNN that Vice President J. D. Vance could attend the proposed talks in Islamabad this week.
However, Israel shows few signs of wanting to end the war—either against Iran or against Hezbollah in Lebanon. An Israeli source said an agreement to end the war with Iran is not “tangible at this time.”
