Recent data from the Turkish central bank indicates a slight but noteworthy increase in inflation expectations among key economic actors. The bank’s monthly Market participants Survey, released today, reveals rising forecasts for both short- and medium-term price increases, a growth closely watched by investors and policymakers as Turkey navigates a period of economic adjustment [[1]] and [[2]]. These expectations come as the central bank maintains its aspiring 16% inflation target for 2026 [[3]].
TURKISH INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE, CENTRAL BANK SURVEY SHOWS
Inflation expectations in Turkey edged higher in November, according to a recent survey released by the country’s central bank. The survey, which polled 68 representatives from the real and financial sectors as well as professionals, indicated that the anticipated monthly increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 1.59% in November, up from 1.55% in the previous month.
The survey also revealed an increase in year-end inflation forecasts, climbing from 31.77% to 32.20%. This data underscores investors’ continued focus on inflation trends within the Turkish economy.
Looking ahead, expectations for CPI increases over the next 12 months increased to 23.49%, compared to 23.26% in the prior period. The forecast for inflation 24 months from now also saw a slight uptick, rising from 17.36% to 17.69%, according to the percentage calculations within the report.
The Turkish central bank regularly conducts the Market Participants Survey to gauge expectations regarding economic indicators, providing insights into market sentiment and potential future policy adjustments.
