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A potential shift in Turkish policy regarding the decades-long conflict with Kurdish militants is underway, driven by unexpected geopolitical considerations. The move, initiated by Devlet Bahceli, a key figure in the Turkish government, could pave the way for renewed peace talks with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), though significant obstacles remain. The development comes as regional dynamics are reshaped by conflicts in the Middle East and evolving alliances.
Bahceli, leader of the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and a close ally of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has reportedly undergone a significant change in stance. Once a staunch opponent of any concessions to Kurdish aspirations, Bahceli now appears to favor a negotiated settlement with the PKK. This shift followed recent Israeli military operations against Hezbollah in September 2024, according to reports. Bahceli reasoned that Turkey must seek peace with the PKK, given Israel’s ties to Kurdish groups in Syria affiliated with the PKK, to counter potential Israeli influence.
Abdullah Öcalan, the imprisoned leader of the PKK who has been held for 26 years on Imrali Island in the Sea of Marmara, remains a central figure in any potential peace process. “Öcalan is a deeply reviled figure in Turkey,” explained Halil Karaveli, a Turkey expert based in Sweden. “The government fears that his release would be exploited by ultra-nationalists and could lead to unrest. Öcalan himself knows he would be in danger the moment he appears in public in Turkey.” Bahceli has reportedly suggested a form of house arrest for Öcalan on Imrali Island, offering a pension and relative freedom while remaining outside of prison.
But the Peoples’ Democratic Party (DEM), Turkey’s pro-Kurdish left-wing party, is rejecting this compromise. DEM is demanding Öcalan’s full release, along with the freedom of all Kurdish mayors and politicians imprisoned in recent years. Even Selahattin Demirtas, a former DEM leader who was jailed following a controversial trial in 2016, remains behind bars.
“While Öcalan is widely disliked by many Turks, Demirtas is well-regarded,” Karaveli said. “He is not associated with violence but with feminism and equality. Ordinary people struggle to understand why he, who has consistently advocated for peace, remains imprisoned – especially if we are truly in a peace process.”
A successful peace process, as envisioned by Ankara, would fundamentally redefine Turkey’s identity, moving away from a strictly ethnically Turkish state towards one with a new constitution granting equal rights to both Turks and Kurds. The PKK would disarm, and Öcalan would persuade its Kurdish-Syrian allies to relinquish their de facto state, “Rojava,” in northeastern Syria, integrating into a unified Syrian army. This, officials believe, would eliminate armed groups along Turkey’s border with Syria and prevent Israel from destabilizing Syria through Kurdish proxies. The question remains, however, why Turkey isn’t accelerating this process it initiated.
Ankara’s progress is hampered by a complex web of internal political struggles, Karaveli explained. “Alongside the peace process, a power struggle is ongoing to determine President Erdogan’s successor within the ruling AKP party. The AKP is also attempting to dismantle the main opposition party, CHP, with its leaders facing imprisonment and threats. While CHP supports the peace process, it does not endorse Öcalan’s release. This has created a rift between CHP and DEM, who previously collaborated, allowing the government to weaken the alliance that has challenged the AKP in recent years.”
Regarding Erdogan’s potential successors, his youngest son, businessman Bilal Erdogan, 44, is now being positioned as a leading candidate. Previously, Erdogan’s son-in-law, Selcuk Bayraktar, 46, who heads the successful defense company Baykar – known for its drone technology used in the war in Ukraine – was considered a frontrunner.
Outside of the family circle, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is seen as the most prominent contender. Fidan and Erdogan share a close relationship stemming from their years together when Fidan headed the Turkish intelligence agency (MIT) and stood by Erdogan during the power struggle against the now-disbanded Gülen movement.
PKK avväpnar – brände vapen i ceremoni
Ultimately, a peace between the PKK and Turkey would benefit both sides in the long run. However, it is ironic that the impetus for the peace process stemmed from exaggerated Turkish fears regarding Israel. While Israel’s military and technological capabilities have impressed regional governments, its ability to act in Syria is limited, particularly by former President Donald Trump, who maintains personal relationships with both Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Israel also has other reasons to avoid antagonizing the Syrian regime, as Saudi Arabia recently warned Israel that diplomatic relations are contingent on respecting the Syrian government.
