As a new round of peace talks convenes in Abu Dhabi, the human cost of the nearly four-year-long conflict in Ukraine remains staggering. A new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates total casualties – including military and civilian – are approaching two million, with Russia sustaining losses unseen as World War II. These negotiations, facilitated by the United States, come as both sides face immense challenges on and off the battlefield, and follow an initial meeting last month focused on prisoner exchanges.
MAXYM MARUSENKO / NurPhoto via AFP
Guerre en Ukraine : alors que les pourparlers reprennent, un bilan qui ne cesse de s’alourdir (photo d’illustration montral un mémorial installé à Kiev pour les Ukrainiens tombés au combat, janvier 2026).
• De nouveaux pourparlers de paix entre Russes et Ukrainiens sont prévus ces mercredi et jeudi à Abou Dhabi en présence des États-Unis.
• Alors que la guerre dure depuis presque 4 ans, une étude américaine évalue le nombre de victimes (blessés, tués, disparus) à 2 millions.
• Si les victimes militaires sont nombreuses, le nombre de civils touchés est particulièrement important ces derniers mois en Ukraine.
As peace talks resume, a new report reveals the staggering human cost of the conflict in Ukraine, now approaching its fourth year. The ongoing war, often overshadowed by other global crises, continues to claim lives and reshape the geopolitical landscape.
Russia and Ukraine are set to meet in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, on Wednesday and Thursday for a new round of peace negotiations, facilitated by the United States. This second session of direct talks, following an initial meeting in late January, aims to move beyond prisoner exchanges – which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said are currently suspended – and work toward a lasting cessation of hostilities.
According to a report released January 27 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S.-based think tank, the total number of military casualties – including those wounded, killed, and missing – is projected to reach two million by spring 2026. The report indicates Russia alone has suffered losses for over 1.2 million military personnel, making it “the power that is suffering more losses than any other belligerent since the Second World War.”
Up to 325,000 Russian Soldiers Killed
The CSIS analysis suggests Russia is paying an “extraordinary price for minimal gains, to the point of regressing in the ranking of world powers.” Approximately 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since February 24, 2022, while gaining control of just 1.5% of Ukrainian territory since the beginning of 2024.
The report also paints a bleak picture of Russia’s tactical performance, noting that Russian forces are advancing at an average rate of just 15 to 70 meters per day during major military operations in Ukraine. This is slower than any major power in any war over the past century. For comparison, the Red Army took 1,394 days to reach Berlin from the start of Operation Barbarossa, the Nazi invasion of the USSR. In 1,394 days of war in Ukraine, the Russian army has not advanced beyond Pokrovsk, 500 kilometers from Kyiv. The CSIS also criticized the official communication from the Kremlin, highlighting the spread of misinformation about the conflict and the declining public support for the “special military operation.”
Beyond the battlefield, the CSIS report also points to a largely unaddressed issue: the reintegration of returning Russian soldiers. “Russia faces a major challenge, the return of tens of thousands of soldiers, including many violent criminals and individuals traumatized by the fighting.” These returns have already led to a “sharp increase in violent crimes against the civilian population in Russia, including murders.”
2025 a Particularly Terrible Year for Ukrainian Civilians
The human cost of the conflict continues to rise, particularly for Ukrainian civilians. According to figures published January 12 by the HRMMU (Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine), 2025 was a particularly devastating year, with 2,514 civilian deaths and over 12,000 injuries. This represents a 31% increase compared to 2024 and a 70% increase compared to 2023.
The UN mission also expressed concern over the deteriorating protection of civilians in 2025, marked by “the increasingly frequent use of long-range weapons,” which are endangering Ukrainians throughout the country, even far from the front lines. In total, based on verified data, the war has claimed the lives of approximately 16,000 Ukrainian civilians and injured nearly 40,000. The HRMMU concedes that the actual toll is “considerably higher.”
These figures – whether concerning civilians or military personnel – are regularly disputed by the warring parties, who often minimize their own losses. The outcome of the negotiations beginning this week remains uncertain, though a Kremlin spokesperson cautioned against expecting “significant results” from these initial contacts, following what were described as “constructive” exchanges last week.
