Russian forces are intensifying their efforts in southeastern Ukraine, particularly around the city of Hulaypole in the Zaporizhzhia region, as Moscow prepares for a potential spring offensive. The escalating conflict raises concerns about the future of the region and the potential for further displacement of civilians.
On January 17, 2026, reports indicated that, according to Vladyslav Voloshyn, Russian troops had begun transferring elite paratroopers to the Hulaypole area. The spokesperson stated that Russia had been building up personnel on the front lines in preparation for a planned assault toward Orikhiv, a strategically important direction for Moscow. Russia plans to strengthen its offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region in 2026.
On January 30, Russian command announced its army had taken the village of Ternuvate in the Zaporizhzhia region. Kyiv quickly responded, stating the claim was false and that the village remained under Ukrainian control. Voloshyn noted the village is approximately 15 km from the contact line. — The enemy used its favorite tactic of infiltration here. A few days ago, an enemy sabotage group secretly entered the village, taking advantage of the difficult weather conditions — he explained to journalists.
According to the spokesperson, Russian forces even managed to film several points with a drone where they were raising flags. However, Ukrainian troops appeared in the village after just one hour. As a result of reconnaissance and search operations in the village, the Russian sabotage group was partially destroyed. The remnants were taken prisoner using robotic complexes.
On February 8, a video appeared on the Telegram channel of Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, showing Ukrainian soldiers standing in the village holding the Ukrainian flag. They also called on Russian troops to surrender: “Russians sometimes publish their so-called victories for an hour online. We are in Ternuvate and doing our job. Ternuvate is ours, Ukrainian.”
On February 9, journalists reported that Ukrainian forces had cleared the village of Pridorožne in the Zaporizhzhia region of a Russian reconnaissance and sabotage group.
Liberated Villages
— Recent video footage featuring Ukrainian soldiers in the western part of Ternuvate suggests that claims of Russian control over it are at least greatly exaggerated — Kirill Mikhailov of Novaya Gazeta told. — However, Russian soldiers continue to regularly enter the villages and try to gain a foothold there. It can also be stated that the Russian army virtually completely controls Hulaypole.
— The Ukrainian side is creating defensive lines, building positions and front lines, preparing to defend Zaporizhzhia — adds military and political observer Alexander Kovalenko. — And where possible, Ukrainian forces are going on the counteroffensive. The village of Ternuvate was cleared of modest tactical groups of Russian troops and is now completely controlled by Ukrainians. The small village of Pridorožne is located near Ternuvate and was not under full Russian control. Fighting took place on the outskirts.
Alexander Kovalenko suggests that in 2026, the Russian army on the southern front will focus on creating a bridgehead for an attack on Zaporizhzhia.
However, Russian forces may not have enough reserves to storm such a large industrial center. At the same time, they will soon be able to terrorize the city with artillery and drones.
“There is No Talk Yet of Taking Zaporizhzhia”
Military expert and Colonel Roman Svitan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also believes that Russian troops will likely install their artillery on the hills and start shelling Zaporizhzhia. However, he is convinced that Moscow will not have enough resources to storm the regional center this year.
— Since autumn 2023, the Russian offensive has not stopped for a moment — recalls Ivan Stupak. — Today it can be said that the Russians have practically mastered Stepnohirsk. It is currently a gray zone, but the Russian army is not stopping its offensive and will soon be able to set up its artillery on the elevation and shell the center of the region. However, there is no talk yet of taking Zaporizhzhia. It is a very large city, with a population of over 700,000 before the invasion in February 2022. It is very likely that even half a million residents still live there.
Evacuation of civilians from the Zaporizhzhia region, January 29, 2026.JOSE COLON / Getty Images
Kovalenko suggests that in 2026, the Russian army on the southern front will focus on creating a bridgehead for an attack on Zaporizhzhia.
Russian forces may not have enough reserves to storm such a large industrial center. At the same time, they will soon be able to terrorize the city with artillery and drones.
War Aims and Pressure on Ukraine
— For Russia, the offensive in 2026 is of very serious importance — believes Kovalenko. — The Kremlin will try not only to solve the issue of creating a bridgehead for attacks on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but also to expand the control zone in Zaporizhzhia. This is not only about military goals, but also about increasing pressure on Ukraine and Western countries in the negotiation process and demonstrating Russia’s ability to continue the offensive indefinitely. In 2025, Moscow finally switched on the battlefield to infantry warfare. It is quite likely that in 2026, Russian generals intend to deliver the final decisive blow. After all, Russia may no longer have either economic or social opportunities to continue the war.
Military expert and reserve Colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan also believes that Russian troops will likely install their artillery on the hills and begin shelling Zaporizhzhia. He is convinced, however, that Moscow will not have enough resources to storm the regional center this year.
— Since autumn 2023, the Russian offensive has not stopped for a moment — recalls Ivan Stupak. — Today it can be said that the Russians have practically mastered Stepnohirsk. It is currently a gray zone, but the Russian army is not stopping its offensive and will soon be able to set up its artillery on the elevation and shell the center of the region. However, there is no talk yet of taking Zaporizhzhia. It is a very large city, with a population of over 700,000 before the invasion in February 2022. It is very likely that even half a million residents still live there.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that Russian military command plans to use its likely limited strategic reserves for the planned summer 2026 offensive in southern and/or eastern Ukraine.
According to ISW, preparations are already underway, and the operation could begin as early as late April. The main directions of a possible attack will be Sloviansk-Kramatorsk and Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.
War Aims and Pressure on Ukraine
— Such directions seem the most likely — says Kirill Mikhailov. — Russia probably does have some strategic reserves — the question is how well they are prepared and equipped. Of course, there is little chance that they will lead to a decisive success within a year, but in the event of an unfavorable outcome for Ukraine, the loss of some cities, such as Kostyantynivka or Orikhiv, is possible. I doubt that Russian troops could even theoretically reach Zaporizhzhia before the second half of the year, unless there is a collapse of the front. The Ukrainian side is doing everything to prevent this from happening: it is creating engineering obstacles on the road to Zaporizhzhia and so-called zones of death, stopping the advance of the Russians.
The situation is already quite dangerous: the Russian army is trying to go out and consolidate itself on the line of the Kynshka River, which theoretically will allow for regular attacks on Zaporizhzhia using tactical unmanned aerial vehicles and artillery. In the future, the Kremlin also hopes to take Orikhiv in this way, whereas breaking through from the side of Hulaypole.
— The Zaporizhzhia front has turn into the most complex for the Russian army in terms of supply. The nearest bases and warehouses are located near Rostov-on-Don or Taman, from where it is about 500 km to Zaporizhzhia.
