A classified assessment by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), completed roughly a week before the U.S. And Israeli strikes in Iran, concluded that even a large-scale offensive would likely not topple the Iranian theocratic regime or its military. The analysis also assessed a scenario where the Iranian opposition would take power as improbable. The findings come as the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, raising concerns about regional stability.
The current war in the Middle East began with strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday, February 28, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran quickly retaliated with military strikes, launching rockets and drones at Israel and at U.S. Bases and other targets in the Persian Gulf region.
The report, finalized approximately one week before the U.S. And Israel initiated the strikes, outlined potential succession scenarios, according to three sources familiar with its conclusions. These scenarios considered both a targeted campaign against Iranian leaders and a broader attack aimed at the country’s political leadership and state institutions.
In both possibilities, the intelligence analysis determined that the Iranian religious and military establishment would respond to Khamenei’s death according to established procedures designed to ensure continuity of power, the sources said. The prospect of the fragmented Iranian opposition assuming control of the country was deemed “improbable,” according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to the classified nature of the report. The assessment suggests that despite military action, the fundamental structure of the Iranian government is likely to remain intact.
