With the last treaty limiting U.S.and russian nuclear arsenals now expired, Washington and Moscow are reportedly on the verge of resuming high-level military dialog amid growing concerns of a renewed arms race. The now-lapsed new START treaty, which capped deployed strategic nuclear warheads, had been a cornerstone of nuclear stability for over a decade – and its future remains uncertain as both nations continue to modernize their nuclear capabilities [[1]]. Recent, intense negotiations in Abu Dhabi, involving envoys from both countries, suggest a potential agreement is near, even though details remain fluid and require final presidential approval.
The United States and Russia are on the verge of renewing high-level military dialogue, the Pentagon confirmed Thursday, just hours after the last treaty limiting the nuclear arsenals of both countries expired. The move comes as concerns grow over a potential new arms race between the two powers.
The now-expired New START treaty capped the U.S. and Russian nuclear stockpiles. Together, the two nations possess roughly 85 percent of the world’s nuclear warheads.
The treaty established limits on the number of deployed warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines, and strategic bombers, and included mechanisms for mutual transparency. The original START treaty, signed in 1991 by the United States and the Soviet Union, prohibited each side from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads.
A follow-up, New START, was signed in 2010 in Prague. Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023, though both Russia and the United States were believed to have continued adhering to its provisions.
Discussions about a new treaty were raised during a 2023 meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-U.S. President Donald Trump in Alaska, but no agreement was reached.
Both the United States and Russia are currently modernizing their nuclear forces and expanding their strategic capabilities, with reports suggesting a new arms race is already underway. The development underscores the ongoing strategic competition between the two nations.
“Maintaining dialogue between militaries is an important factor in ensuring global stability and peace, which can only be achieved with strong [relationships], and provides a means to ensure greater transparency and reduce tensions,” a statement from U.S. Army Europe said.
According to sources familiar with the negotiations, cited by Axios, both sides have nearly reached an agreement, but the proposed plan still requires final approval from both presidents. Intense negotiations reportedly took place over the past 24 hours in Abu Dhabi.
Officials cautioned that a final agreement has not yet been reached.
The U.S. side of the negotiations was led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, both envoys of President Trump. Their involvement was part of broader contacts with Russia during discussions about the war in Ukraine in Abu Dhabi.
Axios notes that it remains unclear whether the agreement will be formalized as an official extension of the treaty or will take the form of a temporary solution – such as a six-month commitment from both sides to abide by its provisions after the current term expires.
Russian President Vladimir Putin previously proposed a short-term extension of the treaty, but the Russian Foreign Ministry stated this week that Kremlin initiatives “have been deliberately ignored.”
One of the primary reasons for White House skepticism regarding an extension of New START is the treaty’s lack of restrictions on China, whose nuclear arsenal, while smaller, is growing rapidly. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that effective 21st-century arms control is impossible without the participation of Beijing, but China has so far shown no willingness to join such agreements.
According to one Axios source, the next step could be a direct signing of an agreement between the U.S. and Russian leaders. The announcement could influence future diplomatic talks and efforts to manage nuclear risks.
