Wall Street is poised for a positive open Monday as investors weigh the implications of the U.S.military intervention in Venezuela, the largest such action in Latin America in nearly four decades. Futures trading suggests modest gains for the Dow jones Industrial Average, with stronger performances expected for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, amid rising oil prices and shifting geopolitical risk assessments. Markets are also looking ahead to a busy week of economic data, including the U.S. ISM manufacturing index and the all-important monthly employment report.
Entrée du NYSE Wall Street à New York
Wall Street is poised for gains Monday, fueled by expectations of a surge in U.S. oil company stocks following the recent developments in Venezuela.
Futures markets indicate a nearly flat open for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 0.05%, while the Standard & Poor’s-500 is projected to rise 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite is expected to climb 0.72%. In Paris, the CAC 40 gained 0.06% to 8,199.98 points as of 11:43 GMT. Frankfurt’s Dax advanced 0.68%, and London’s FTSE 100 rose 0.11%.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index is up 0.40%, the Euro Stoxx 50 is gaining 0.71%, and the Stoxx 600 is up 0.36%.
Market reaction to the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, the most significant military action in Latin America in 37 years since the invasion of Panama, has been measured. However, some investors are noting that geopolitical risks may be underestimated, particularly given recent threats from President Donald Trump regarding other nations.
“The removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the United States is unlikely to have significant economic consequences for the global economy in the short term,” said Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics. “But the political and geopolitical repercussions will be felt.”
The situation in Venezuela adds another layer of complexity to a year that has already begun with uncertainty, as investors await a ruling from the U.S. Supreme Court on President Trump’s tariffs, as well as his decision on the next chair of the Federal Reserve.
The U.S. corporate earnings season is also set to begin next week, with major Wall Street banks leading the way.
On the economic calendar Monday, investors are looking ahead to the release of the U.S. ISM manufacturing index for December. All eyes will also be on the official employment report scheduled for Friday, which could provide further clues about the economic outlook and the future path of interest rates.
STOCKS TO WATCH
Oil sector stocks are leading the gains in pre-market trading, as investors anticipate the potential opening of Venezuelan oil fields to American companies following the intervention in Caracas.
Chevron is up 7.3% before the bell, Halliburton is climbing 7.5%, and Exxon Mobil is gaining 3.4%.
EUROPEAN MARKETS
French underwater drone manufacturer Exail is jumping nearly 12% to lead the SBF 120, boosted by a €40 million order.
Alstom shares have reached their highest level since July 2023, rising 2.5% on the back of several contracts totaling €2.5 billion.
European defense stocks are at a two-month high following the U.S. action in Venezuela: Hensoldt, Rheinmetall, and Renk are up between 6% and 7%.
BOND YIELDS
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is down 2.0 basis points at 4.1691%, after rising more than four basis points Friday, as investors await the U.S. employment report.
The two-year Treasury is down 1.8 basis points at 3.4590%.
The German 10-year Bund is down 1.5 basis points at 2.8840%. The two-year Bund is down 4.0 basis points at 2.1304%.
CURRENCIES
The U.S. dollar is starting its first full trading week of 2026 with a strong rally, reaching a three-and-a-half-week high against the euro and two-week highs against the yen, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar.
Currency traders largely disregarded the weekend’s U.S. intervention in Venezuela, focusing instead on a series of U.S. macroeconomic indicators scheduled for release this week that could be crucial for Federal Reserve policy.
The dollar is up 0.19% against a basket of reference currencies.
The euro is down 0.29%, trading at $1.1684.
OIL
The oil market is rebounding, driven by both anticipation of increased global supply and concerns about potential disruptions following the developments in Venezuela.
OPEC+ has maintained its oil production levels despite tensions among its members, while President Trump has affirmed that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remains in effect.
Brent crude is up 0.51% at $61.07 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is up 0.66% at $57.70.
METALS
Gold prices are rising Monday, with other precious metals also posting significant gains, following the developments in Venezuela, which are exacerbating geopolitical tensions and driving demand for safe-haven assets.
Gold is up 2.1% at $4,420.96 per ounce, its highest level in a week. It previously reached a record high of $4,549.71 on December 26, 2025.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR – JANUARY 5
COUNTRY GMT INDICATOR PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
USA 15:00 ISM Manufacturing Index December 52.4 52.6
(Some data may be subject to slight delay)
(Reported by Mara Vilcu and Augustin Turpin, edited by Blandine Hénault)
