Former judge and current senator Sergio Moro (PL) holds a commanding lead in the race for the governorship of Paraná, while former senator Álvaro Dias (MDB) has emerged as the frontrunner for the state’s Senate seats, according to polling data released Monday, April 13, 2026.
The latest data from Paraná Pesquisas indicates that Moro is leading the gubernatorial contest by a significant margin, maintaining a lead of between 25 and 30 percentage points across four different tested scenarios. This dominant position suggests a strong possibility of a first-round victory for the PL candidate.
In the first analyzed scenario, Moro leads with 46% of voting intentions, followed by Rafael Greca (MDB) at 19.7% and Requião Filho (PSD) at 17.7%. When Greca is removed from the simulation, Moro’s support rises to 52.5%, with Requião Filho trailing at 22.9%. In another scenario including Alexandre Curi (Republicanos), Moro remains the favorite with 50.9%, while Requião holds 22% and Curi 11.7%.
The gubernatorial race has evolved from a highly fragmented state seen earlier in the year. A January 2026 poll showed a vast majority of voters—74.2%—were undecided or refused to answer, though Moro was already showing leadership in stimulated scenarios at that time.
Simultaneously, the race for the two Senate seats in Paraná is becoming a strategic battleground between allies of current Governor Ratinho Júnior (PSD) and the camp of Sergio Moro. Álvaro Dias is currently leading this race, with polling showing him between 44.5% and 48% of voting intentions. Dias is closely aligned with Governor Ratinho Júnior.
Other key figures in the Senate race include:
- Deltan Dallagnol (Novo): A former federal deputy and close ally of Moro, Dallagnol holds between 28.2% and 30.1% of the vote.
- Alexandre Curi (Republicanos): The president of the Legislative Assembly of Paraná and a strategic ally of the governor, Curi fluctuates between 22.9% and 29.3%.
The data reveals that in a scenario where Álvaro Dias is not running, Dallagnol and Curi are technically tied for the lead. This underscores a polarized political landscape in the state, where candidates are largely grouped around the influence of the current governor or the profile of Sergio Moro.
According to the latest polling from Paraná Pesquisas, Gleisi Hoffmann (PT), the Minister of Institutional Relations, is the most rejected name to represent the state in the Federal Legislature. Other candidates mentioned in the survey include federal deputy Filipe Barros (PL), journalist Cristina Graeml (PSD), and former federal deputy Rosane Ferreira (PV).
The current polling trends highlight a consolidation of power around a few key political figures as the 2026 electoral cycle progresses, shifting from an early period of high voter indecision to a more defined ideological divide.
