Barclays analysts are forecasting a potential surge in the price of Brent crude oil to $120 per barrel, should conflict in the Middle East persist for several more weeks.
The British lender outlined in a note released on Friday that while this level may seem high, particularly given the pessimistic outlook for the oil market at the start of the year, the fundamental factors supporting oil prices are currently stronger, and the risks are greater than those stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The price of Brent crude surpassed $92 per barrel during trading on Thursday, March 6, 2026. This move comes as the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation announced a package of reinsurance facilities covering losses of up to $20 billion for oil and gas tankers in the Gulf region.
Barclays reiterated that the underlying factors supporting oil prices are stronger now, and the risks are greater than those associated with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The increased risk to supply chains is a key driver of the revised forecast, reflecting the potential for wider regional instability.
“This level may seem high, especially in light of the pessimism surrounding oil market expectations at the start of this year,” the bank stated. The forecast underscores the sensitivity of global energy markets to geopolitical events and the potential for rapid price fluctuations.
