Cardiovascular disease remains a significant public health challenge,accounting for roughly one in three deaths in teh United States each year [source needed]. Now, a new online tool aims to empower individuals to proactively assess their long-term risk. Developed by researchers at Northwestern University, the free calculator estimates an individual’s 30-year risk of heart disease and stroke, built upon the American Heart association’s “PREVENT” equations [[1]]. The tool’s launch arrives amid rising cardiovascular mortality rates, notably in the UK, underscoring the urgent need for preventative measures.
New Online Tool Estimates 30-Year Heart Disease Risk
A new free online tool developed by researchers at Northwestern University in Chicago allows individuals aged 30 to 59 to estimate their risk of developing cardiovascular disease – including heart attacks and strokes – over the next three decades. The tool provides a risk assessment as a percentage compared to others of the same age and sex.
Cardiovascular disease remains a leading cause of death globally, and understanding individual risk factors is a crucial step toward prevention. The launch of this calculator comes as early deaths from heart disease in the United Kingdom have reached their highest levels in over a decade, according to data from the British Heart Foundation.
Between 2019 and 2023, early deaths due to cardiovascular disease in the UK rose by 18%, increasing from 18,693 to 21,975. The foundation also reported a 21% increase in heart failure diagnoses since 2020 – the highest rate ever recorded.
The new risk calculator is based on the “PREVENT” equations developed by the American Heart Association in 2023, utilizing data from tens of thousands of American adults. Users simply input information such as age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol levels, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, and whether or not they have diabetes to receive their personalized risk score.
The score is presented as a percentile ranking, for example, “You are in the 90th percentile,” meaning your risk is higher than 90% of your peers.
“This is the first time percentages have been translated into a long-term heart disease risk assessment tool,” said Dr. Sadia Khan, a professor of cardiovascular epidemiology at Northwestern University and one of the tool’s developers. “When someone sees they are in the 90th percentile, we hope it will be a wake-up call and motivate them to change their lifestyle immediately, because risk starts early and prevention is possible.”
Dr. Khan added, “We don’t want to wait until someone has a heart attack or stroke. It’s like saving for retirement – you need to put in the effort now. Comparing yourself to your peers makes the information more impactful and encourages immediate action.”
The tool’s development was informed by a study analyzing health data from approximately 8,000 American adults who were free of heart disease at the start of the study.
The results showed that men generally have a higher risk than women at all ages, but Dr. Khan emphasized that “women’s risk catches up to men over time,” highlighting the importance of tools that consider sex-specific factors.
Researchers stress that the calculator is not a substitute for a visit to a physician, but rather a tool to raise awareness and encourage people to seriously consider modifiable lifestyle factors. Approximately 80% of heart disease cases are preventable.
Experts attribute the significant rise in heart-related deaths in Britain to several factors, including the prevalence of processed foods and unhealthy diets, the effects of the coronavirus on the cardiovascular system, and disruptions to primary care and hospital services during the pandemic.
