控え
Hungary has lost access to over 1 billion euros (approximately $1.08 billion USD) in European Union funding at the start of the new year, stemming from a long-running dispute over rule of law concerns. The loss of funds underscores growing tensions between Budapest and Brussels, and raises questions about Hungary’s access to future EU investments.
N+3 years = 6.3 – 1.04 – 1.08 billion euros
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The financial setbacks are tied to a conditional rule of law procedure initiated three years ago. In December 2022, after months of negotiations, EU member states agreed to block approximately 6.3 billion euros in funds allocated to Hungary, with only Poland dissenting. The decision was nearly unanimous.
EU regulations stipulate that commitments made in year ‘n’ cannot be included in the budget after year ‘n+2.’ As a result, portions of the funds earmarked for Hungary from the 2021-2027 EU budget became inaccessible by the end of 2024 and 2025. According to a response from the European Commission, these amounts totaled 1.04 billion euros and 1.08 billion euros, respectively. The European Commission confirmed the figures in late October.
Unlike some EU funding programs that provide reimbursement after expenses are incurred, the blocked funds represent a loss to the Hungarian national budget. Some planned projects may not move forward due to the lack of funding. The lost resources were allocated to programs focused on environmental and energy efficiency, integrated transport development, and regional and urban development.
The European Commission initiated the freeze in April 2022 to protect the EU budget “against violations of the rule of law principles in Hungary.” Concerns centered on systemic irregularities, deficiencies, and weaknesses in Hungary’s public procurement procedures, as well as issues related to conflicts of interest.
The Council of the European Union’s decision to freeze the funds, outlined in a resolution, stated that these problems and their recurring nature demonstrate that Hungarian authorities are either unable or unwilling to prevent decisions that violate applicable law in public procurement and conflict of interest cases, and therefore adequately manage the risk of corruption.
Strategy Shift After 2023: Waiting for Leverage Instead of Compliance
To regain access to the funds, Hungary would need to fulfill 17 conditions that the government itself proposed. These include establishing an Integrity Authority, reducing the proportion of single-bid public procurement procedures, and implementing special procedures for high-profile crimes related to the exercise of public power or the management of public property.
As part of the EU process, foundations with close ties to the government – often referred to as “kekváks” – and all institutions they maintain were excluded from eligibility for new EU funding. The Commission cited a lack of transparency in the operations of these foundations, concerns about conflicts of interest involving political decision-makers, and the government’s failure to address previously identified issues. These foundations include those behind restructured universities, such as the Mathias Corvinus Collegium (MCC) and its Vienna University affiliate, and the Mol – New Europe Foundation .
The government had made progress on some commitments before the freeze, which was acknowledged by EU ministers. The original Commission proposal would have blocked 65% of Hungary’s allocated funds, but the Council reduced this to 55%. In the spring of 2023, EU sources indicated that a deal was close.
However, a breakdown in communication between the government and the European Commission appears to have occurred around the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. Both sides attribute the impasse to a lack of political will on the other side.
In December 2023, the EU Commission conducted an official assessment of the conditional procedure but did not recommend its termination, concluding that the government had not addressed the underlying concerns despite ongoing discussions.
Tibor Navracsics, Minister for Regional Development and Public Administration, announced in January 2024 that negotiations had stalled on one of the 17 conditions, specifically regarding the public interest asset management foundations. Until recently, the minister had been regularly informing the press about developments.
Since then, the government, under EU Affairs Minister János Bóka, appears to have shifted its strategy. Bóka stated in 2024 that the conditions are now viewed as political rather than legal or technical issues. While expressing a willingness to cooperate constructively with EU institutions, he emphasized the need to politically counter them.
The government can request a reassessment at any time, and did so regarding the foundations at the end of 2024, acknowledging that not all requirements had been met. The European Commission identified a dozen outstanding issues, but the government has not addressed them and refuses to do so, claiming to have met the conditions.
Lost, Inaccessible, Removed, Excluded
The responses from the government and the European Commission regarding the loss of funds have been likened to a sketch from Monty Python.
Bóka said in January that he does not consider it an accurate description to say that EU funds have been lost. He believes that funds are only lost if Hungary fails to meet the conditions due to its own fault, and maintains that all conditions have been met. Therefore, “we are not losing funds, but they are trying to take certain funds from us for political reasons.”
Tamás Menczer, communications director for Fidesz-KDNP, stated in February that “you lose your phone or your handkerchief, not EU funds, as it depends on political decisions.”
Minister of Economic Development Márton Nagy told Index in December that “statements that we lost one billion euros last year and will lose more this year are not true.” He argued that the money will eventually be provided by the EU. He also noted that the total value of submitted project applications exceeds the available funds.
“But we will. Yes, we will lose money that we haven’t had access to yet.”
– Navracsics said in response to a question about the year-end loss of funds.
The European Commission indicated in late October that 1.04 billion euros had been “definitively lost” by Hungary at the end of 2024. These funds have been withdrawn from the EU budget’s commitments and “are no longer available.”
A senior official at the European Commission, Themis Christophidou, said in early October that one billion euros had “gone” at the beginning of the year. Piotr Serafin, Commissioner for Budget, used the official term during a debate in December, stating that another billion euros in cohesion funds would be removed from commitments at the end of the year due to the Hungarian government’s lack of response.
This article summarizes the various ways Hungary is losing EU funds, despite government claims.
The European Commission notified Hungarian authorities in July that they had two months to revise the programs’ financing plans regarding the 2025 loss. “If the Member States do not adjust their financial plans with a program supplement or a reduction of commitments,” the Commission would supplement the plan “by proportionally reducing the contribution of the funds to the financial year in question.” The reduction would be applied proportionally to each priority.
Why the Government Doesn’t Consider the Situation Final
When the government avoids semantic arguments about losing a handkerchief, it typically disputes whether the loss is final.
Bóka has openly stated his intention to leverage the next seven-year budget, starting in 2028, and to “rectify” the situation. Orbán estimated in July 2025 that “we are talking about at least a two-year negotiation period.” The latest EU summit conclusions did not set a firm deadline, but hinted that an agreement by the end of 2026 would allow enough time to adopt the necessary legislation without disrupting applicants.
Even by mid-2027, we would run into the two-year rule, and the 10.4 billion euro Recovery and Resilience Facility would also be lost if the conditions of the rule of law procedure are not met by September 2026. Furthermore, the blackmail itself could be legally problematic, as a similar suspicion has led to a lawsuit before the EU Court of Justice regarding previously released Hungarian funding.
Navracsics explained that the government believes it can recover these funds – “which are already in the seven-year budget” – through negotiations. The minister believes that the upcoming elections will be a turning point, as the European Commission expects the Fidesz-KDNP to lose, but he believes they are mistaken. He believes that after the elections, the Commission will have to sit down with the government to negotiate. Nagy Márton also expressed confidence that relations would improve “once we win the elections,” after, among other things, repeating the falsehood about abolishing the 13th-month pension.
The Tisza Party is also campaigning on a platform of recovering EU funds, with Péter Magyar claiming it would total 8 trillion forints.
Various funds are constantly being reallocated from the current 2021-2027 budget for various purposes, meaning that others could potentially take over the freed-up funds. Hungary could also recover funds through this process, and Bóka acknowledged in June that certain reallocations allow for an increase in available resources. He did not consider this a significant change, but rather a change in the hundreds of millions of euros.
Whoever wins in the spring of 2026, the government will likely find two announced amounts in the negotiations for the 2028-2034 budget that differ by at least 800 billion forints, as there would be an opportunity to do so even without such a large deficit.
The current 2021-2027 budget represents 1.15% of the EU’s gross national income. However, the Commission’s proposal for 2028-2034 is 1.26% to repay the debt behind the Recovery Fund. A veto or delays in negotiations would mean continuing with the proportional numbers of the old budget, resulting in significantly less money for net beneficiaries like Hungary due to the debt repayment. The budget requires unanimous agreement from governments with the consent of the European Parliament. The latter has also raised similar suspicions of blackmail and deficiencies around the approval of the judicial package in 2023 and filed a lawsuit.
Regardless, the 400 billion euros lost at the beginning of 2025 has already been deducted from commitments, and fulfilling the conditions alone will not be enough to recover the 800 billion euros, or the fact that university foundations linked to the government complained about millions of euros in damages as early as the summer of 2023, and the Hungarian government launched substitute programs with taxpayer funds.
