GENEVA (AP) — Iran’s participation in the men’s World Cup, set to begin in three months, is now in serious doubt following an escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered by a joint military operation from the tournament’s co-host, the United States, and Israel.
Iran was scheduled to play its three group stage matches on U.S. Soil – two in Inglewood, California, and one in Seattle – from June 15-26. Canada and Mexico are also hosting matches in the expanded 48-nation tournament.
The U.S. And Israel launched coordinated attacks against Iran beginning on Saturday, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and numerous other high-ranking officials.
WATCH: Trump attends final 2026 World Cup draw, awarded FIFA Peace Prize
Iran responded with missile strikes targeting U.S. Allies, including Qatar, the 2022 World Cup host, and Saudi Arabia, which FIFA has selected to stage the 2034 edition.
“What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,” said Mehdi Taj, a vice president of the Asian Football Confederation and Iran’s top soccer official.
It remains unclear whether the Iranian soccer federation will withdraw its team from the tournament or if the U.S. Government will prevent them from traveling.
FIFA has not issued a comment since Saturday, when Secretary General Mattias Grafström stated the organization would “monitor developments around all issues around the world.”
Andrew Guiliani, the White House’s lead official for World Cup preparations, appeared unconcerned on Saturday, posting on social media, “We’ll deal with soccer games tomorrow. Tonight, we celebrate their opportunity for freedom.”
Here is a look at the issues in play:
Asian soccer power
Iran is consistently one of Asia’s strongest national teams, having qualified for six of the last eight World Cups.
Currently ranked No. 20 in the FIFA world rankings, Iran has not fallen below No. 24 since the 2022 World Cup in Qatar.
During the World Cup draw in Washington, D.C. In December, Iran was seeded second. U.S. President Donald Trump was presented with the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize immediately before the draw.
Despite Iranian soccer officials being denied visas to enter the U.S., the draw proved favorable for Iran, particularly with the expanded tournament format that allows most third-place teams to advance.
WATCH: Trump’s World Cup task force announces new visa interview system for ticketholders
Iran’s group stage schedule begins against New Zealand, followed by a match against Belgium, and concludes against Egypt. The team is expected to have strong support from the Iranian diaspora in the U.S., though citizens of Iran are currently subject to a travel ban.
The Trump administration has promised exemptions to the travel ban for athletes and coaches participating in major sporting events like the World Cup.
Political demonstrations within World Cup stadiums are not unprecedented, as Iranian fans voiced concerns about domestic issues during the last World Cup.
The FIFA rules
FIFA’s World Cup regulations address team withdrawals or exclusions, but the language is notably ambiguous.
According to Article 6.7, “FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and accept whatever action is deemed necessary.”
“FIFA may decide to replace the Participating Member Association in question with another association,” the rules state.
This framework appears to grant FIFA President Gianni Infantino broad authority in any decision regarding Iran’s participation. Just 18 months ago, Infantino’s decision to include Inter Miami and Lionel Messi in the 2025 Club World Cup lineup lacked a clear basis in existing tournament regulations.
Consequences of withdrawing
If Iran were to withdraw from the World Cup – a scenario that remains speculative – its soccer federation would forfeit at least $10.5 million.
FIFA provides $9 million in prize money to each of the 16 federations whose teams do not advance from the group stage, and all 48 qualified teams receive $1.5 million to cover preparation costs.
The Iranian federation would also face disciplinary fines from FIFA – at least 250,000 Swiss francs ($321,000) for withdrawing up to 30 days before the tournament, and at least 500,000 Swiss francs ($642,000) if the decision is made within the last month before kickoff.
A withdrawal could also jeopardize Iran’s eligibility for the 2030 World Cup qualifying rounds.
Next in line
Iran secured its World Cup qualification last March, earning one of eight guaranteed spots allocated to the Asian Football Confederation.
Should Iran withdraw, Iraq or the United Arab Emirates would likely be the replacement.
Iraq and the UAE were the ninth and tenth-ranked Asian teams, respectively, and competed in a two-leg playoff last November. Iraq won 3-2 on aggregate, eliminating the UAE, and advanced to the intercontinental playoffs. On March 31, they are scheduled to play an elimination game against Bolivia or Suriname for a World Cup berth.
FIFA’s regulations allow for the replacement of a withdrawn team “with another association,” but do not specify that the replacement must come from the same continental confederation.
Precedent of a late replacement
Denmark famously won the 1992 European Championship after receiving a late invitation from UEFA.
Yugoslavia had won its qualifying group but was removed by UEFA less than two weeks before the tournament due to United Nations sanctions during the escalating Balkans conflict.
Teams have previously declined to participate in a World Cup, though not in recent history.
Only 13 teams participated in the 1950 World Cup in Brazil, with India and Scotland among those declining their invitations.
