Author: Marina Bērziņa
Latvian timber industry exports to the United States experienced a significant downturn at the finish of last year, with December seeing a sharp decline in shipments. The development highlights the increasing vulnerability of Baltic economies to shifts in global trade dynamics.
The decrease is attributed to newly imposed U.S. Tariffs and weaker activity in the American construction sector. While the impact varies across product segments, the overall trend points to a substantial reshaping of the market.
Sharp Drop at Year-End
Compared to December 2024, Latvia’s total exports to the U.S. Shrank by nearly half – 44 percent – in December 2025, totaling 27.9 million euros. The most significant contributor to this statistic was a dramatic reduction in the sale of wood and wood products, which fell by more than 86 percent. Over the entirety of 2025, Latvian timber exports to the U.S. Reached 105 million euros, a decrease of 43 million euros compared to the previous year.
Experts indicate that these changes were anticipated, but the scale of the decline has prompted caution among businesses. The U.S. Market has historically been important for Latvian wood products, but has become increasingly difficult to predict.
Why are U.S. Buyers choosing less Latvian wood?
The primary driver of the export decline is the U.S. Tariffs implemented in September 2025. President Donald Trump announced recent duties of 10–15 percent specifically on wood materials. This move was intended to protect American domestic producers. Latvian and other European companies now face greater difficulty competing on price, as locally produced U.S. Products have become more advantageous.
Compounding the impact of the tariffs, the U.S. Construction sector has slowed. Fewer new homes being built automatically reduces demand for imported wood materials. Manufacturers of wood-based panels, particularly OSB, have been particularly affected. Interestingly, not all sectors have suffered equally – exports of coniferous lumber actually saw a slight increase, suggesting that certain niche markets remain viable.
Seeking New Routes in Europe and Worldwide
The Latvian Timber Industry Federation acknowledges that a global realignment of trade routes is currently underway. Companies previously reliant on the American market are now actively exploring other opportunities. This isn’t new, as the European market has always been the main and most stable partner for Latvian timber producers. The European market is currently serving as a buffer, preventing the industry from falling into crisis even when conditions are chaotic in more distant markets.
Currently, the entire sector is in a waiting period, seeking a new point of stability to understand how to operate in an environment where the policies of major powers are becoming increasingly unpredictable.
Volatility as a Common Occurrence
Economists point out that exports to the U.S. Have historically been uneven. For example, in 2025, exports performed well in May but virtually stalled in August, falling to a minimum. There was a slight recovery in the autumn, but the last two months of the year again brought disappointment.
Similar “roller coaster” fluctuations have been seen in the industry in the past, for example, in 2021 and 2023. However, the current situation is different in that political decisions regarding tariffs have created a stable barrier that cannot be overcome simply with better marketing or efficiency. Latvian timber producers must now contend with a new reality in which the U.S. Market is becoming an exclusive and difficult-to-access zone.
