Recent data indicates a period of stabilization in the Polish housing market, following a surge in prices during 2023 fueled by the “Safe Credit 2%” program. Preliminary reports for August and October 2025 show largely unchanged asking prices, with modest declines in major cities and minimal fluctuation elsewhere. While experts caution that a clearer picture will emerge with the release of fourth-quarter figures, the current data suggests a cooling trend and a shift in market dynamics as potential buyers weigh higher interest rates and a moderating labor market.
Polish housing market data for August and October 2025 indicates that asking prices on the secondary market have remained largely unchanged. Modest price declines of 1-3% were recorded in major cities, while regional cities experienced minimal fluctuations.
Experts caution that a clearer picture will emerge with the release of fourth-quarter reports in early 2026. However, preliminary data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) suggests limited corrections in the third quarter, with the largest decreases occurring in Krakow (-1.7%) and Gdansk (-1.4%). Most regional cities even saw price increases, with Bydgoszcz being the only exception, experiencing a 1% quarterly decline.
Retirees Downsizing Homes are Seeing Significant Savings
Looking ahead to 2026, analysts anticipate initial price stability, followed by moderate growth in the second half of the year. This projected increase is expected to be significantly slower than the rapid gains seen in 2023, when the Safe Credit 2% program was in effect.
“The market continues to see a supply-demand imbalance favoring sellers, although the number of listings is beginning to decrease in some cities, like Warsaw. As demand recovers, sellers are more willing to negotiate prices. If credit availability improves in 2026, the labor market remains stable, and supply continues to decline, prices should stabilize or begin to rise in the second half of the year,” forecasts Anton Bubiel of SonarHome.pl.
The report indicates that while elevated supply remains a factor, data from the third quarter and October 2025 suggest the first signs of a decrease in some cities. Supply is still expected to be relatively high at the beginning of 2026. Experts advise caution when interpreting signals of market recovery.
Despite the price adjustments, interest rates remain higher than in most of the past decade, and any further reductions in the coming year could improve financing availability and encourage buyers. Simultaneously, the labor market is showing signs of cooling, with fewer new jobs being created, tempering optimism among potential homebuyers.
These factors suggest that 2026 will not see dramatic changes, but rather a slow, gradual reduction in the excess supply.
How Polish Borrowing Power Will Increase
The report’s authors noted that the latest National Bank of Poland (NBP) projection from November 2025 indicates that inflation in 2026 should approach the central bank’s target, falling to 2.9%, and is expected to reach 2.5% in 2027. The projected inflation suggests stable or even lower mortgage costs.
Economists estimate the NBP’s reference rate could fall to 3.5%. For someone planning a mortgage, this translates to a real improvement in borrowing capacity. With a 25-year loan and a principal of PLN 500,000, potential rate cuts would increase affordability by approximately 8%, or PLN 38,000-45,000, bringing the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio for such a borrower close to 50%, the limit recommended by the Polish Financial Supervision Authority (KNF).
Bubiel observed that following a period of high interest rates, the mortgage market is entering a phase of recovery, and according to NBP forecasts, credit growth momentum will accelerate at the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026 before gradually weakening through 2027.
“Currently, the biggest source of uncertainty remains the geopolitical situation, but in the absence of strong shocks, the beginning of 2026 is expected to be a period of clear recovery in the number and value of new loans, typical of an economy emerging from a period of high inflation. The pace of growth may slow in the second half of the year, but still maintain positive momentum,” Bubiel predicts.
The report’s authors recalled that the proposed mortgage subsidy program, which ultimately did not come into effect, was the subject of lively political debate, with concerns raised that such an instrument could effectively stimulate demand but also contribute to rapid price increases, as seen during the Safe Credit 2% program.
Family Mortgage Credit: What It Entails
Experts pointed out that the less well-known and less controversial support tool is the still-valid Family Mortgage Credit, previously functioning as a down payment guarantee program.
This solution allows you to purchase an apartment or house without having to have your own savings, as Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego (BGK) guarantees the missing portion of the down payment, effectively allowing you to finance a property with 100% financing. The program remains relatively unknown, and interest in it has been moderate so far.
The report also shows a slowdown in activity among investors buying properties for rental income. In recent years, the supply of rental properties has increased in many cities, while the profitability of such investments has fallen due to high purchase prices and stabilizing rental rates. Investor enthusiasm is also dampened by emerging discussions about changes in taxes, including restrictions on mortgage relief and the introduction of a progressive property tax.
Geopolitical uncertainty, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, also influences investor decisions. As a result, the real estate market is increasingly reliant on owner-occupiers. Demand dynamics are lower in this group compared to portfolio investments.
SonarHome is a platform offering, among other things, online property valuation.
