Quebec’s political future is in question as Premier François Legault‘s leadership faces increasing scrutiny. A growing sense of voter dissatisfaction is fueling speculation about a potential shift in power within the province, and whether the Coalition Avenir Québec can maintain it’s hold. this analysis examines the current political climate and the rising profiles of potential successors as the province looks ahead to the 2026 elections.
Quebec’s political landscape is facing a period of uncertainty as speculation mounts over the future of Premier François Legault and the potential for a shift in the province’s governing party. A sense of dissatisfaction with the current political options is growing among voters, raising questions about whether a new leader could emerge as a viable alternative.
Trying to pinpoint the appeal of individual ingredients in a bouillabaisse once it’s cooked is a futile exercise; they blend together to create a single flavor. Similarly, assessing the potential for a new leader within the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) party requires considering the overall political palate of Quebec voters.
The question arises as to whether, following Legault’s potential departure, a successor could offer a fresh political option for Quebecers. This consideration comes as public enthusiasm for the current political landscape appears to be waning.
As more discussion takes place, it becomes clear that many Quebecers aren’t particularly excited by the current political offerings, suggesting a lack of appetite for the status quo.
While the Parti Québécois currently leads in the polls, and Liberal leader Pablo Rodriguez has yet to inspire confidence, other parties are gaining traction. The Conservative Party is quietly increasing its support in the Quebec City region, and Québec solidaire’s Manon Massé is actively campaigning. This shifting dynamic underscores the potential for change in the province’s political landscape.
However, there seems to be something missing from the political menu—perhaps a reimagined CAQ under new leadership. The possibility of a revamped party with a different face at the helm is gaining attention.
The coming weeks after the holidays will be crucial, as Legault assesses whether his recent policy initiatives, described as “sweeteners” by Michel C. Auger in La Presse, have resonated with voters. However, a significant shift in public opinion seems unlikely unless there’s a fundamental change in perception.
This leads to the central question: is the public’s rejection focused solely on Premier Legault, or does it extend to the entire government?
The initial response appears to be the latter. The widespread perception is that the government as a whole has been complicit in questionable decisions and has failed to adequately challenge the premier and his inner circle.
Speculation is growing about potential leadership candidates within the CAQ, such as Government House Leader Simon Jolin-Barrette or Education Minister Sonia LeBel, should a leadership race emerge. The possibility of a new face leading the party is being openly discussed.
Health Minister Christian Dubé’s recent actions regarding negotiations with doctors could be seen as an attempt to bolster his image as a strong leader, but it remains to be seen whether this will translate into broader political appeal.
Bernard Drainville, however, appears to have ruled himself out of contention. Whether this assessment is accurate remains to be seen.
Jolin-Barrette is currently appealing to nationalists, with his proposed Quebec constitution.
There is some debate, as noted in a recent article in La Presse, over the constitution’s practical value if Quebec remains a province, though some argue it could still hold legal weight.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, ARCHIVES LA PRESSE
Premier François Legault and Justice Minister Simon Jolin-Barrette in June.
However, the constitution is unlikely to address the concerns of everyday Quebecers struggling with the rising cost of groceries and the overall economic climate.
Despite recent controversies, Jolin-Barrette is widely regarded as one of the government’s most effective ministers—a reliable player, akin to a dependable defenseman in hockey.
LeBel, meanwhile, has maintained a relatively low profile, which some see as a strategic move. She is viewed by many as a genuinely good person with sound judgment.
In the current political climate, an empathetic, intelligent, and decisive woman might be the right choice for Quebec’s leadership.
PHOTO EDOUARD PLANTE-FRÉCHETTE, ARCHIVES LA PRESSE
Education Minister Sonia LeBel.
Other potential candidates may emerge, but further speculation at this point is premature.
Treasury Board President Sonia Duranceau is reportedly eyeing the finance portfolio, and it remains to be seen what impact that will have. There is a sense that the government may attempt to win favor with voters before the next election by reducing taxes on gasoline.
It’s also worth considering whether Finance Minister Eric Girard might have leadership ambitions. But, frankly, I need a break from this speculation.
Ultimately, it feels as though I’m writing without a clear conclusion.
The prevailing sentiment is that Quebecers are looking for something more from the political landscape when they head to the polls in October 2026.
Between Us
Quebec should not use its hydroelectric resources to power the energy-intensive data centers of foreign artificial intelligence companies. We will not benefit from lasting economic returns, and there are far better uses for this valuable resource.
Quebec recently lost a respected figure, Alban D’Amours, former president of the Mouvement Desjardins.
1. Read “Les toffes”
2. Read “Alban D’Amours, ex-president of the Mouvement Desjardins, is dead”
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