Nearly four years into the conflict,Russian forces maintain control over approximately 23% of Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast,with incremental territorial gains raising questions about the long-term trajectory of the war[[1]]. Despite a full-scale invasion, the slow pace of advances – now measured in years rather than months – is prompting analysis of Russia’s military capabilities adn the efficacy of continued Western aid to Ukraine. Recent reports indicate ongoing negotiations involving Ukraine and the U.S., focusing on potential compromises regarding NATO membership and future elections, though a full withdrawal from the Donbas remains a red line for Kyiv.
Russian forces have occupied approximately 23% of Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast nearly four years into the conflict, according to recent monitoring data. The slow pace of territorial gains by Russia, despite a full-scale invasion, is drawing scrutiny as Ukraine continues to receive military aid from Western allies.
Over the past three years and eight months, Russia has seized 23% of the Donetsk Oblast, while Ukrainian defense forces maintain control over 22.6%, the monitoring channel DeepState reported.
Although daily changes in the area of occupation are frequent, the overall control of the region has shifted very slowly. Prior to the full-scale invasion, pro-Russian separatist groups controlled roughly 32% of the Oblast.
“During the first 40 days of the invasion, due to failures in the defense of southern Ukraine and the encirclement of Mariupol, the enemy was able to capture an additional 22.4% of the Donetsk region,” the report stated. “After that, the pace of advancement slowed, as the Ukrainian Armed Forces established a defensive line from Velyka Novosilka to Vuhledar, and the enemy suffered heavy losses in attempts to break through the Donetsk fortified area.”
Analysts drew a historical comparison, noting that the German Wehrmacht advanced from the Western Buh River to Moscow and Stalingrad in less than 47 months during World War II, and then returned to Berlin. In contrast, “the second army in the world” has moved from Donetsk to Pokrovsk in a similar timeframe.
“It is difficult to understand how American partners view this ‘tortoise-like offensive’ as an asset,” the report continued. “Although, of course, we are not in a position, with the current balance of forces, to liberate all internationally recognized territories. Overall, if there are no major changes, it will take the Russians at least three more years to occupy the entire Donetsk Oblast.”
Donetsk Oblast in the context of the war – the latest news
Negotiations between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and representatives from the U.S. delegation recently took place in Berlin, according to reports.
According to BILD, Ukraine is prepared to discuss difficult compromises, including potentially abandoning its pursuit of NATO membership and holding elections in the near future. However, Zelenskyy has drawn a firm line regarding the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the Donbas region. The publication reported that Kyiv is open to a temporary “freeze” of the front lines and the potential loss of control over territories occupied by Russia, but firmly rejects any demand to pull troops from the entire Donbas.
Additionally, reports suggest that Russia’s National Guard could serve as a “Trojan horse” for Putin in the Donbas. One political analyst suggests that the U.S. is currently seeking a formula that would allow Russia to gain control of the remaining parts of the Donbas.
