Turkey-Israel Tensions Rise: Syria Conflict & New Alliances

A high-level Turkish delegation’s unprecedented visit to Damascus signals a significant shift in regional dynamics as the conflict between Israel and Turkey intensifies. The development underscores growing realignment in the Middle East and raises questions about the future of the Syrian conflict.

The delegation, comprised of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Defense Minister Yaşar Güler, and the head of Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MİT) İbrahim Kalın, arrived in the Syrian capital earlier this week. The visit carried a clear and forceful message, according to sources familiar with the discussions.

The trip came less than ten days before a deadline for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to comply with a March 10 agreement. Fidan stated that the primary reason for the SDF’s non-compliance is coordination with Israel, saying: “The fact that some activities of the SDF are carried out in coordination with Israel currently constitutes a major obstacle to ongoing talks with Damascus.”

With Israeli forces now positioned just 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from the Syrian capital, Fidan leveled his most direct accusations yet against Israel. He had previously linked difficulties in integrating the SDF into the Syrian state to Israel’s role in the matter.

However, the most significant statement came from Damascus, where Fidan added a pointed remark: “Syria’s stability means Turkey’s stability, and this is of utmost importance to us.”

Israeli Response: A Counter-Alliance in the Mediterranean

Israel responded swiftly to the Turkish delegation’s visit. Images emerged of the Greek Prime Minister and the President of Cyprus meeting in Tel Aviv, both dressed in coordinated blue attire, in a display widely interpreted as the announcement of a new alliance in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Greece and Cyprus are considered key security concerns for Turkey, and the two countries have been strengthening cooperation with Israel in the Mediterranean, sending a clear political message to Ankara.

During a joint press conference, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu directly addressed Turkey, stating: “To those who think they can rebuild their empire on our lands: forget it. It won’t happen. Our cooperation strengthens our ability to defend ourselves.”

The statement goes beyond a direct rebuke of Turkey, tapping into deeper cultural and political anxieties, and attempting to revive historical fears in the Arab world of a resurgent “neo-Ottoman” empire. Some politicians in Greece have sought to intimidate their citizens with warnings of a “return of the Turks,” while others in the Middle East have promoted the idea of Ankara attempting to revive the Ottoman state.

By aligning with the leaders of Greece and Cyprus, Netanyahu appeared to be attempting to stoke these deliberately cultivated fears.

A Qualitative Shift in Israeli-Turkish Relations

Greece and Cyprus have long engaged in symbolic policies against Turkey, but this time the situation is different. Cooperation with Israel against Ankara is no longer simply populist maneuvering, but has evolved into a serious regional policy.

The two countries, in cooperation with Israel, are attempting to narrow Turkey’s sphere of influence in the Mediterranean and are allowing Israel to establish a military presence near islands adjacent to the Turkish coast – a step Turkey cannot ignore.

Netanyahu also made direct statements aimed at Turkey during the press conference, saying: “I say to those who think they can rebuild their empire on our lands: forget it. It will never happen. Our cooperation enhances our ability to defend ourselves.”

This statement targets not only Turkey but also carries deeper cultural and political dimensions, seeking to stir buried anxieties in Arab consciousness – anxieties fueled by Western sources – about the return of the “neo-Ottomans.” Just as some politicians in Greece have attempted to intimidate their citizens by talking about the “return of the Turks,” some parties in the Middle East have sought to promote the idea of Ankara reviving the Ottoman state.

By aligning with the leaders of Greece and Cyprus, Netanyahu sought to exacerbate this artificial and deliberately directed fear.

Syria: The Hottest Arena of Conflict

Syria is currently the most volatile arena in the power struggle between Israel and Turkey. While Turkey proposes a unified Syria – one state, one army, one land – Israel continues to support a plan to divide the country into three regions through direct military intervention.

Israeli actions have escalated to targeting an area near the residence of Syrian President Ahmed Khaddam in Damascus, a strike understood as a direct threat that rejecting Israeli policies could have devastating consequences.

Syria has effectively become a battleground between Ankara and Tel Aviv. Turkey is working to militarily encircle the SDF, with the help of the Syrian army and some armed factions, while Israel is attempting to thwart these efforts by activating its assets within the SDF, particularly the Feyman Hussein group, and some members of the Druze and Alawite sects, and even through secret networks within the Islamic State (ISIS).

Could an Attack on the SDF Lead to an Expansion of the Israeli Occupation?

The deadline for the SDF to integrate into Syrian state institutions is fast approaching, and Turkey is threatening potential military action, but recognizes that such an operation could open the door to chaos that Israel could exploit to expand its occupation.

In the event of large-scale clashes, Israel could bomb Damascus or target vital infrastructure in the country, believing it would face no deterrence. Israel also sees the SDF – particularly its military wing, the YPG – as a vital tool to hinder Turkey’s movements and will not easily accept the demise of this entity.

If Israel loses this card, other groups and components it uses as tools, such as the Druze and Alawites, may also distance themselves, fearing the same fate.

Therefore, Israel is expected to do everything in its power to maintain the SDF/YPG card, but the question remains: does it have the capacity to succeed? Only time will tell.

Will Turkey Launch a Military Operation Against the SDF?

Turkey believes that the SDF, geographically and politically besieged, cannot survive for much longer, giving it the upper hand on the ground.

Despite this, launching a direct military operation involving the Turkish army is considered a last resort. The more likely strategy is to separate the SDF from the Arab tribes that make up about 75% of its armed members – who are paid by the United States – which would leave the YPG standing alone on the battlefield.

While Mazloum Abdi has claimed that the SDF comprises 100,000 fighters, intelligence estimates put the actual number at around 45,000, including 30,000 Arab tribal fighters and 15,000 Kurdish and other groups.

Turkish armed forces estimate that the YPG wing possesses between 10,000 and 15,000 armed personnel, of whom only 8,000 to 10,000 are capable of fighting, with the remainder being security units for internal tasks.

Therefore, any direct clash is unlikely to see Arab tribes fighting against Turkey or Damascus, and the YPG lacks the capacity to resist a dual attack from both sides. The group is therefore relying on Israeli support.

Turkey plans to strip the SDF of its Arab allies, then besiege the YPG militarily without direct involvement from its army, but by using forces allied with it within the Syrian army.

Is a War Between Israel and Turkey Possible?

Frequent statements from Israeli ministers, officials, and research centers indicate that Israel now considers Turkey its “primary enemy” and is basing its defensive positions on this assessment.

Every Turkish move is interpreted in Tel Aviv as a threat: purchasing aircraft, building warships, producing missiles, a presence in Gaza, relations with Hamas, or even maneuvers in the Mediterranean – all are read as an existential danger to Israel.

The recent moves with Cyprus and Greece are part of this trend, but the fiercest battle is being fought in the United States, where Israel is using its influence to obstruct Turkish arms programs and political and economic projects.

So far, Turkey has not officially designated Israel as a threat in its security doctrine, but circles in politics, security, and intelligence are now openly stating this. Fidan himself has repeatedly linked the SDF to Israel in recent days, indicating a potential change in the official position soon.

However, an open war between Turkey and Israel would be unlike any other conflict. Turkey, a member of NATO with close ties to the United States and the strongest army and economy in the region, represents a formidable opponent. Any clash between them would send shockwaves around the world and change the course of events in the Middle East.

Therefore, uttering the word “war” should be taken with the utmost seriousness and caution.