With the expiration of the New START treaty on February 5th, the decades-long era of bilateral nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia has come to an end. The United States is now calling for a new trilateral negotiation framework including China,citing the evolving global security landscape and the need to address the rapid expansion of both Russian and Chinese nuclear capabilities.Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the shift on Wednesday, signaling a potential reshaping of international efforts to maintain strategic stability amid increasing geopolitical tensions [[1]].
The United States has proposed a new trilateral nuclear arms control negotiation involving the U.S., Russia, and China, a move signaling a significant shift in approach to global security as existing treaties expire and geopolitical tensions rise.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in a statement on February 6, highlighted the limitations of the New START treaty, arguing that a new agreement is needed to reflect the reality of a world where the U.S. “will soon face two major nuclear powers, China and Russia.”
The New START treaty, which limited strategic nuclear weapons between the United States and Russia, officially expired on February 5 after years of instability following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The treaty had been in effect since 2011.
The Trump administration has maintained that Russia has not fully complied with New START and that the treaty fails to address China’s growing nuclear arsenal, necessitating a replacement. The expiration of New START removes previous constraints on the size and modernization of the U.S. nuclear arsenal.
“Arms control can no longer be a bilateral issue between the United States and Russia,” Blinken stated. “Other countries must also take responsibility for ensuring strategic stability, and China, in particular, has a responsibility to do so.”
He warned, “Russia and China should not expect the United States to stand by while they evade their obligations and expand their nuclear forces. We will maintain a strong, credible, and modernized nuclear deterrent.”
President Trump also weighed in on February 5 via his Truth Social platform, stating, “Instead of extending New START, we should have our nuclear experts explore a new, improved, and modernized agreement that can last for the future.”
The U.S. echoed these calls during a meeting of the United Nations Disarmament Conference in Geneva on February 6.
Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas DiNanno alleged that China has conducted nuclear explosions, specifically citing an event on June 22, 2020.
DiNanno claimed, “Chinese military officials are aware that these experiments violate their pledge of a nuclear test ban and have attempted to conceal the explosions through deceptive means.” He asserted that China employed “decoupling” technology to obscure seismic signatures associated with the tests.
He further explained that President Trump’s directive in October 2023 to the Department of Defense to resume nuclear testing was prompted by similar activities from Russia and China.
Regarding Russia, DiNanno noted a shift in stance, stating, “At one time, the P5 – the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France – shared a common position on North Korea’s growing nuclear weapons program. However, Russia has now aligned itself with North Korea and portrays its nuclear program as a ‘resolved issue.’”
DiNanno also accused Russia of maintaining a large stockpile of non-strategic nuclear weapons, not limited by New START, and of developing nuclear-powered cruise missiles and torpedoes.
“The arms control system, designed almost 20 years ago for New START, no longer adequately ensures that the United States can fulfill its commitments to strategic deterrence and extended deterrence to our allies,” DiNanno said. He indicated that the U.S. will now be able to strengthen its nuclear deterrent capabilities with the treaty’s constraints removed.
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