Venezuela is undergoing a period of transition following the recent ousting of President Nicolás Maduro and the ascent of Delcy Rodríguez to power [[1]]. While a U.S.-backed intervention facilitated the change in leadership, the underlying political structures remain largely intact, raising questions about the extent of genuine reform [[2]].This report examines the initial steps taken by the Rodríguez administration,including efforts to stabilize the economy through oil sector privatization [[3]], and the delicate balancing act required in navigating relations with both Washington and its customary allies.
Nearly a month into her presidency, as of January 5, 2026, Delcy Rodríguez is leading a Venezuela seeking stability following the ousting of Nicolás Maduro. The shift in power, however, hasn’t fundamentally altered the country’s political system. The situation marks a pivotal moment for the nation, with implications for regional stability and international relations.
The Venezuelan armed forces quickly recognized Rodríguez’s authority, and there was no military response following the U.S.-backed intervention and the capture of Maduro. Despite this, internal contradictions persist. While the government has announced the release of political prisoners and implemented economic reforms, reports of new detentions continue to emerge, and the apparatus of repression remains in place.
David Smilde, a sociologist at Tulane University in New Orleans and an expert on Venezuela, believes Rodríguez has initially solidified her position within the Chavista power structure. “She has effectively established her leadership within the ruling circle,” he told DW. However, he cautions that the more difficult phase – governing and implementing unpopular reforms within Chavismo – is now beginning.
Opening to Oil Investment and Negotiations with Washington
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The new government’s economic priority has been to rapidly open the oil sector to private investment, aiming to attract capital and alleviate the ongoing economic crisis. Reports suggest these measures were discussed with Washington prior to Maduro’s arrest, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
As Caracas seeks the lifting of sanctions, Rodríguez publicly insists that the United States must refrain from interfering in Venezuela’s internal affairs, a stance that appears contradictory. This delicate balancing act underscores the complex geopolitical challenges facing the new administration.
Smilde argues that Chavismo is attempting to simultaneously reduce U.S. pressure while avoiding internal political liberalization. He explains that the goal is to “calm Trump and Rubio and ensure they do what is necessary to avoid another attack or new pressures,” while simultaneously signaling that this is not a move toward democracy.
Laura Cristina Dib, director of the Venezuela program at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), agrees that the strategy is aimed at buying time. “Delcy Rodríguez intends to buy time,” she told DW, noting that the repressive apparatus remains intact and that a genuine democratic transition cannot be discussed without dismantling it.
Stability or Mere Containment?
While the country appears relatively calm, that stability is qualified. Political scientist Ana Soliz de Stange, of the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces in Hamburg, observes that stability can only be spoken of in formal terms, as “political repression continues,” despite some recent prisoner releases.
Soliz de Stange adds that Rodríguez is combining external pragmatism with an internal discourse aimed at containing tensions within Chavismo and its militias. “She is playing more strategically, maintaining her internal discourse while following the policy line that the United States has put on the table,” she told DW.
Balancing Washington and Long-Standing Allies
A key question is whether Venezuela can forge closer economic ties with the United States without jeopardizing relationships with allies such as Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran.
“I think that is a very, very important question to which I have no answer. I don’t know if anyone does,” admits David Smilde. The ability to navigate these competing interests will be crucial for Venezuela’s future economic and political trajectory.
The Tulane University expert believes maintaining this balance will be extremely difficult, given the deep energy, military, and economic agreements with those countries. Severing ties would entail significant strategic and financial risks for Caracas.
Laura Cristina Dib warns that there is also a risk that Caracas will simply replace personnel in power without dismantling the authoritarian structure, potentially resulting in “an authoritarian government without the dismantling of this entire repressive structure, with a change of actors.”
Limited Room to Maneuver
Rodríguez faces a narrow margin for maneuver. She needs to revive the economy and ease sanctions, but without losing support within Chavismo or provoking fractures within the armed forces.
Washington appears willing to assist in this regard. David Smilde suggests that, for the United States, a politically stable and investment-friendly country may be sufficient, even if it is not democratic.
Laura Dib concludes: “January 3rd marked a change: not a transition, but a modification of the status quo that has opened some possibilities for Venezuela. In this scenario, it is not enough to look at the past and at what the United States has done; now it is necessary to look to the future and see how to support Venezuelans in their struggle for democracy and for the guarantee of human rights, which also requires a recovery not only economic, but also of economic and social rights, in a country going through a complex humanitarian emergency.”
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