Bereich
After a two-month period of relative calm, the U.S. dollar resumed its downward trend in international markets at the end of November, falling 9.4% so far this year.
The shift came as expectations grew that the U.S. Federal Reserve would lower interest rates this month – a move that materialized on December 10 – and as the central bank signaled a more flexible stance amid weakening labor market data in the United States.
In the local market, however, the U.S. dollar has remained above S/ 3.36 since November 5, when the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) made its first dollar purchase since 2020. It has fluctuated between that level and S/ 3.38, as previously reported by gestion.pe.
The BCRP isn’t just intervening through direct dollar purchases to moderate the currency’s decline against the sol. It’s also actively using derivative instruments, specifically selling swaps, by allowing some to expire without renewal – either in full or in part. This effectively increases demand for the U.S. dollar in the market, particularly from banks, and dampens its downward momentum.
Since November 5, the dollar has remained above S/ 3.36 due to interventions by the BCRP. (Photo: GEC)
LEA TAMBIÉN: BCP sees dollar falling below S/ 3.30 in 2026, should you sell now?
What is the scale of the BCRP’s intervention in the foreign exchange market?
Julio Velarde, president of the BCRP, acknowledged that “the enormous foreign exchange intervention (this year) has been the swaps that have been expiring (without being renewed).” He added, during the presentation of the inflation report, “It’s as if we were buying dollars.”
This direct intervention with swaps has been so significant this year that it far exceeds the central bank’s outright dollar purchases, which have totaled US$ 2,062 million year-to-date. The net expiration of these swaps through December 18 amounted to US$ 6,356 million. Combined, the central bank’s interventions in the foreign exchange market have surpassed US$ 8,000 million in 2025. This level of intervention signals the BCRP’s commitment to managing currency fluctuations.
Velarde noted that in 2021, “when Peruvian savers sought to take their money out of the country, we intervened by selling dollars in the spot market (outright) and with derivatives (swaps); that enormous stock of derivatives has been decreasing (mainly this year)”.
Swap operations to soften the declining trend of the dollar have been so substantial in 2025 that the outstanding balance is now below US$ 6,500 million, nearly half of the US$ 11,800 million observed at the end of 2024, according to the central banker.
Julio Velarde emphasizes that the BCRP only intervenes in the foreign exchange market to moderate fluctuations, but fund managers believe it has, for now, curbed the dollar’s decline.
LEA TAMBIÉN: Dollar’s decline accelerates due to illegal gold: 3 details of the market exposure
Will the BCRP cap the dollar at S/ 3.36?
Yesterday, the BCRP took both actions: it purchased US$ 323 million outright and allowed swaps worth S/ 500 million (US$ 148 million) to expire. The greenback, which touched a low of S/ 3.363, rebounded with these interventions and closed the session at S/ 3.368, a similar dynamic to that observed since November.
The central bank needs to intervene because the appreciating trend of the exchange rate (dollar decline) is very strong and justified by the large trade surplus, fueled by dollar inflows from mining – including illegal mining – and a political landscape that has improved significantly compared to the situation under the Pedro Castillo government, according to Blum portfolio manager Diego Marrero.
“The BCR is seeking to moderate the fluctuation, but it has moderated the appreciation (of the sol against the dollar) and has put a brake on (the dollar),” Marrero said, adding that, consistent with its guidance, the monetary authority should accompany the trend, meaning allowing the dollar to fall below current levels if pressures intensify.
Thus, the investment manager, as well as banks, believe that if the inflow of foreign currency into the country continues and the increased supply prevails, the monetary authority would allow the dollar to fall further and move off the S/ 3.36 level, which, for now, appears to be the floor.
