Tegucigalpa, Honduras – A nail-biting presidential election in Honduras is heading for a runoff, with early results revealing a deeply fractured electorate and allegations of potential fraud. The contest pits Nasry Asfura,a conservative businessman endorsed by prominent right-wing figures including former U.S. President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei, against Salvador Nasralla, a veteran politician campaigning on a more liberal platform. The closeness of the race – separated by a mere fraction of a percentage point with the majority of votes tallied – underscores the high stakes of the election, which is being closely monitored internationally due to Honduras’s geopolitical importance and its ongoing struggles with violence, poverty, and political instability.
TEGUCIGALPA – Honduras is on the cusp of a political shift as a closely contested presidential election heads toward a nail-biting finish, signaling the likely end of left-wing rule in the Central American nation. The outcome remains uncertain, but current results indicate that neither candidate has secured a clear victory, a scenario unprecedented in Honduran electoral history as the country does not have a runoff system. The election’s results are being closely watched internationally, given Honduras’s strategic location and its growing geopolitical importance.
With 56% of the vote tallied, Nasry Asfura, backed by former U.S. President Donald Trump and Argentine President Javier Milei, and Salvador Nasralla, a liberal candidate, are locked in a tight race separated by less than half a percentage point. The closeness of the contest has fueled accusations of potential fraud from multiple candidates.
According to preliminary results from the National Electoral Council (CNE), Asfura, representing the National Party (PN), currently holds a slight lead over Nasralla, with 39.8% of the vote to Nasralla’s 40%. The margin between the two stands at just 0.2%, representing fewer than 5,000 votes.
Nasralla, a 72-year-old television personality running on the Liberal Party ticket, has been steadily gaining ground on Asfura as more results come in. He expressed confidence Monday that he could overtake his rival as votes from additional provinces are counted.
Trailing significantly behind is Rixi Moncada, the ruling party’s candidate from the Liberty and Refundation (Libre) party, who has garnered 19.18% of the vote. Moncada, a 60-year-old lawyer, has stated she will only recognize the final vote count once all ballots have been tallied, a process that could take days.
The CNE has up to 30 days to officially declare the election results. Political analyst Carlos Cálix cautioned that “It is impossible to determine the winner with the data we have.”
The election offered Hondurans a choice between continuing the country’s first left-wing government, led by Xiomara Castro, or shifting direction, mirroring recent political trends in Bolivia and Argentina. Milei’s endorsement of Asfura highlights the growing conservative influence in the region.
Nearly 6.5 million Hondurans were eligible to vote for the successor to Castro, as well as 128 members of Congress and 298 mayors and vice mayors for four-year terms. The electoral authority has not yet released overall participation figures.
The initial report from the CNE was delayed by more than 90 minutes and arrived nearly five hours after polls closed. Moncada, who, like Nasralla, raised concerns about potential fraud during the campaign, urged her supporters to “remain in struggle” until the final results are certified, posting her call to action on social media platform X.
In a late-campaign intervention, Trump warned that Washington would not “waste” resources on Honduras if Asfura, known locally as “Papi a la orden,” did not win, alleging that a loss for Asfura would allow control of the country to fall to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and “his narco-terrorists.” He also labeled Moncada a “communist” and Nasralla “almost a communist” due to his past association with the current government.
Trump went further on Friday, announcing that he intends to pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, who is currently serving a 45-year prison sentence in the United States on drug trafficking charges.
Moncada claimed the pardon for the alleged drug kingpin was “arranged” by local elites, while Asfura asserted he had “nothing to do with the elections.”
The deep polarization of this election is a legacy of the 2009 coup against President Manuel Zelaya, Castro’s husband, who was ousted by right-wing forces after moving closer to Venezuela. This history underscores the country’s vulnerability to political instability.
Both Asfura and Nasralla pledged to re-establish ties with Taiwan, reversing Castro’s 2023 decision to recognize China. This shift in foreign policy could have implications for regional alliances and international trade.
Amidst the political maneuvering, the candidates largely failed to address the pressing concerns of Honduran citizens. “We need more security. There is no employment and people are looking for opportunities in other countries,” said Fren uancis Rodas, a 29-year-old homemaker, in the capital city.
Honduras, one of the most violent countries in the Americas, is heavily reliant on the United States, with 60% of its 11 million citizens living in poverty and 27% of its GDP fueled by remittances from migrants. The outcome of the election will likely shape the country’s economic and social trajectory for years to come.
Manuel Orozco, an analyst at Diálogo Interamericano, told AFP that the biggest challenge for the next government will be job creation, given that 70% of the workforce is employed in the informal sector.
The election took place under a partial state of exception imposed by Castro in 2022, reflecting the ongoing challenges of drug trafficking and institutional infiltration in one of the continent’s most dangerous nations.
Agencias AFP y AP
