Gold Price Could Reach $5,000 an Ounce by 2026, HSBC Forecasts

HSBC predicts gold prices will surge to $5,000 per ounce by the first half of 2026, fueled by escalating global risks and increased investment.

The forecast comes as spot gold surpassed the US$4,300 level yesterday, marking its strongest weekly performance since December 2008. HSBC attributes the rally to a combination of factors including geopolitical tensions, substantial central bank purchases, growing inflows into exchange-traded funds, anticipation of potential U.S. interest rate cuts, and economic uncertainties related to tariffs. Rising gold prices can impact inflation and investment portfolios, making it a key indicator of economic stability.

“The bull market is likely to continue to press prices higher for 1H’26 and we could very well reach a high of $5,000/oz some time in 1H 2026,” HSBC stated in a recent research note. The bank has also revised its average gold price forecasts, increasing its 2025 estimate to US$3,455 per ounce from US$3,355, and its 2026 forecast to US$4,600, up from US$3,950. For more information on commodity markets, see the CME Group website.

HSBC anticipates continued price elevation and potential spikes through early 2026, driven by new market participants who are likely to maintain their positions in gold even after the rally subsides, valuing its diversification and “safe haven” qualities. However, the bank also expects significant volatility and some price moderation in the second half of 2026. This forecast aligns with recent predictions from analysts at Bank of America and Societe Generale.

HSBC expects gold prices to remain elevated amid ongoing geopolitical risks, economic policy uncertainty, and increasing public debt levels.