The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic growth projections for Egypt, citing the compounding pressures of regional geopolitical instability and rising costs for essential commodities.
For the current 2025/2026 fiscal year, the IMF now expects Egypt’s economy to grow by 4.2%. This represents a 0.5% decrease from the 4.7% growth forecast issued by the fund in January. These adjustments follow a series of revisions. in October, the IMF had previously estimated growth at 4.5% for the current year.
Despite the immediate downturn, the IMF anticipates a recovery in the following fiscal year, forecasting that growth will climb to 4.8%. This is a downward revision from the 5.4% growth projected in January and the 4.7% estimated in October.
The shift in outlook underscores the vulnerability of regional economies to external shocks, particularly as conflicts in the Middle East disrupt trade and inflate prices. However, the IMF has indicated that Egypt’s economy remains capable of weathering the ongoing crisis in the region.
Addressing financial support, the IMF stated it is not currently discussing an increase in Egypt’s existing program. The fund noted that the Egyptian government has acted with a significant degree of responsibility in managing its economic affairs.
Separately, Egypt’s Minister of Planning has expressed a more optimistic short-term outlook, projecting that growth could reach 5% during the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
