The conflict between the U.S. And Israel against Iran is escalating and becoming increasingly global in scope, raising questions about potential NATO involvement and whether Latvian soldiers could be deployed to the Middle East – a discussion with Jānis Sārts, Director of the NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence.
What is driving the extremely dangerous situation in the Middle East?
Two key factors are at play. First, Iran has been attempting to acquire nuclear weapons for some time, and success in this endeavor would have serious consequences for the entire region – a region vital to the global economy due to its oil and gas reserves. Second, there is growing discontent with the current regime within Iran itself. The Iranian regime brutally suppressed protests in January, resulting in the deaths of thousands of people. The combination of these factors led the United States to the decision that now is the right time to launch an attack.
How will this conflict in the Middle East impact the war in Ukraine? Attention is shifting away from Ukraine, with the focus now primarily on the Middle East. This isn’t the first time in the last four years that other conflicts have diverted attention. Iran immediately appealed to Russia for support, but Russia responded with a statement of sympathy but no concrete assistance.
This comes despite significant military aid Iran has provided to Russia. According to Bloomberg, Iran has supplied Russia with ballistic and anti-aircraft missiles worth $2.7 billion, with total military assistance to Moscow exceeding $4 billion since 2021. Cooperation between Moscow and Tehran began even before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with initial contracts for missile deliveries concluded in October 2021.
Specifically, Iran has provided Russia with several hundred short-range ballistic missiles “Fath – 360”, nearly 500 other types of short-range ballistic missiles, approximately 200 surface-to-air defense missiles, and millions of artillery shells and compact arms cartridges.
Russia’s refusal to assist Iran will likely influence the intentions of many countries to cooperate with Russia. Syria, Venezuela, and now Iran – these countries were considered allies to some extent, but are now being left to fend for themselves. The number of Russia’s allies is diminishing. The U.S. Has demonstrated its military technological superiority, and the performance of Russian air defense systems, on which Iran had relied, has been called into question. This may lead Putin to be more cautious in his future intentions and statements. The unpredictable nature of Donald Trump, should he return to office, is also a factor.
Third, Western ammunition and weapons stockpiles were already dwindling, and the current situation will accelerate this depletion, as Europe has been paying the U.S. For weapons purchased for Ukraine.
What will happen to oil prices?
If the fighting is prolonged, oil prices will undoubtedly rise, which would benefit Russia. The key question is whether this strong start can be sustained, and how long the war itself will last?
Trump recently stated that this Middle East conflict could continue for quite some time, “maybe a month.” “We were trying to create a deal. We tried,” he noted in a video. Trump emphasized that “we’re going to destroy their rockets and we’re going to level their rocket factories to the ground. It’s going to be totally… destroyed.”
The question is whether the capabilities of the U.S. And Israel will be sufficient to sustain this war for an extended period, and whether the Iranian people will be willing to change the current regime. Conversely, whether Iran will attempt to create a painful situation for all countries in the region and the global economy is also a concern. Iran may try to attack the entire oil industry in the region.
How will this Middle East conflict affect Latvia?
The impact on Latvia is primarily through its effect on Ukraine. There will certainly be an impact on Europe. But our main priority is to rapidly increase our military capabilities. The precision of recent U.S. Military operations is based on the use of artificial intelligence. We must draw conclusions from this.
What is NATO’s role in all of this?
NATO is not directly involved in this conflict. However, one NATO ally – the United Kingdom – is participating, as strikes have been launched through the British military infrastructure in Cyprus. NATO’s role is to prepare for the potential effects of the war on the conflict in Ukraine and to promote the development of the military industry.
Russian ideologue Dugin stated that the next target – after the elimination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – could be Putin.
The military precision with which most of the Iranian leadership was destroyed will certainly cause Russia to reconsider its actions. However, it is important to remember that Iran is a nuclear power. I would not claim that Putin will definitely be next.
Meanwhile, Trump stated in a public address that his goal is to achieve peace not only in the Middle East but throughout the world. Shouldn’t Ukraine be included in that world?
It’s not entirely appropriate to directly translate the statements of the U.S. President… I believe he will try to continue the military operation in the Middle East for some time. Let’s hope that leads to a peaceful resolution.
What about a Latvian military contingent? Is there any plan to send Latvians to the Middle East?
This question is not even being discussed at this time. And I don’t believe we should be making such choices right now. Our interests and choices are clear. We have no such need. But I will reiterate – the world order that has prevailed for the last 30 years has collapsed.
