TEHERAN – As the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28, 2026, surprising scenes unfolded in the capital, with some residents reportedly taking to rooftops to celebrate. The unusual displays of support come amid a controversial military action, viewed by some as violating international law, and running counter to the Iranian government’s long-held antagonism toward Washington and Jerusalem.
The reaction suggests a willingness among a segment of the population to accept potential civilian casualties in the hope of overthrowing the Islamic theocracy that has governed Iran for 47 years. The development underscores growing internal dissent within the country and the potential for regime change.
The stated justifications for the U.S. Military intervention have shifted, but regime change has consistently been identified as a key objective. President Donald Trump directly appealed to anti-government protesters in January, stating, “When the war is over, take your government. This may be your only chance in generations.”
Just hours later, reports emerged confirming the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, in an Israel-U.S. Strike. Even as Khamenei’s death did not immediately destabilize the Islamic Republic, the regime has continued under the leadership of veteran politician Ali Larijani as an interim figure.
A Venezuela Scenario?
Trump has indicated satisfaction with the prospect of a Khamenei successor willing to cooperate with the United States. In remarks to The New York Times, he claimed to have “three very decent options,” though he declined to name them.
“What we did in Venezuela, I feel, is perfect, a perfect scenario [for Iran],” Trump told the newspaper. The U.S. Believes it can engineer a change in Iran’s supreme leadership while preserving the fundamental structure of the Islamic Republic.
This approach mirrors the U.S. Operation in Venezuela, where special forces reportedly facilitated the removal of Nicolás Maduro and brokered a political agreement with Vice President Delcy Rodriguez. The announcement could influence future diplomatic talks and regional power dynamics.
Cornelius Adebahr of the German Council on Foreign Relations suggests Iran could appoint a new leader backed by the Revolutionary Guard and forge a new relationship with the U.S. “The scenario is the same as Venezuela,” Adebahr said, “The top leadership is replaced and the change is less than what people expect.”
Read also: How Will Iran Choose a New Leader After Khamenei’s Death?
