2025 proved to be a volatile year for investors, marked by shifting expectations and geopolitical uncertainty [[1]]. Initial optimism surrounding the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the presidency and the potential for pro-business policies was quickly tempered by concerns over escalating trade conflicts and a rapidly competitive artificial intelligence landscape [[2]]. The ensuing market swings highlighted the sensitivity of equities to both economic policy and technological disruption, forcing investors to reassess risk and navigate a period of heightened unpredictability.
Investors navigated a year of unexpected turns. In January, the emergence of a low-cost Chinese artificial intelligence model rattled technology stocks, raising doubts about the dominance and high valuations of leading AI companies. The sector, a key driver of recent market gains, faced a period of reassessment as investors weighed the potential for increased competition.
Conversely, the anticipated return of Donald Trump to the presidency provided a boost to markets. Investors widely expected his administration to implement policies favorable to economic growth, offering a potential tailwind for equities.
“Donald Trump is admittedly difficult to predict, but some of the steps he approved during his previous term were beneficial for the stock market. It was reasonable to expect that would continue,” portfolio manager Tomáš Pfeiler of Cyrrus previously stated.
Corporate tax cuts were a particularly positive development, as they tend to increase company profits, a key metric for investors. The expectation of continued pro-business policies initially fueled market optimism.
Bubble Risk Emerges
However, by spring, investor expectations began to shift. Shortly after taking office, Trump introduced a series of tariffs targeting a broad range of countries, sparking fears of a recession. From January’s inauguration to April, when the trade conflict escalated, the S&P 500 index fell by more than 15 percent, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined by as much as 20 percent. These losses represented the steepest declines since the onset of the pandemic, highlighting the sensitivity of markets to geopolitical risk.
Investors were so taken aback by the president’s actions…
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