Following a challenging 2025 marked by notable economic headwinds, Turkey’s consumer sector is projected too see a gradual recovery in 2026, according to a new report from JPMorgan. the analysis, released today, points to moderating cost inflation and favorable base effects as key drivers for improved corporate profitability. JPMorgan’s assessment arrives as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey continues its focus on price stability [[1]], a critical factor for consumer confidence and market performance. The report also includes updated stock recommendations for key players in the Turkish market.
Turkey’s consumer sector is poised for a gradual recovery in 2026 following a challenging period, according to a new report from JPMorgan. The bank anticipates that more moderate cost inflation and favorable base effects will support corporate profitability after a difficult 2025.
2025 Presented Significant Hurdles
JPMorgan analysts Hanzade Kılıçkıran and Siddhant Sahoo detailed in their report that 2025 proved difficult for Turkish consumer-focused companies, marked by slowing revenue growth and margin pressure. Weak consumer confidence and increased promotional sales contributed to an approximate 20% decline in real profits.
Looking Ahead: Recovery Expected in 2026
While acknowledging continued household vulnerabilities, JPMorgan forecasts a gradual improvement in the economic outlook for 2026. The anticipated recovery in earnings is expected to be bolstered by more reasonable cost inflation and positive base effects. This comes as the Turkish economy is projected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, with accelerating growth anticipated in the second half of the year, according to JPMorgan’s macro team.
Inflation is also expected to continue its downward trend, albeit at a slower pace.
JPMorgan Updates Stock Recommendations
The report highlighted upgrades to several key stocks. Coca Cola İçecek’s recommendation was raised from Neutral to Overweight, and the company was added to both the “Most Preferred Stocks” list and the Positive Catalyst Watch (+CW) coverage.
-Migros – Overweight
-BİM – Overweight
-Coca Cola İçecek – Overweight
Turkish Airlines was also singled out as a “value story” with an “Overweight” rating. The airline’s inclusion reflects investor interest in companies demonstrating strong value potential.
JPMorgan believes that profitability trends in the Turkish consumer sector could move upward in 2026, supported by more stable cost dynamics and the benefit of base effects. The analysis provides a cautiously optimistic outlook for investors navigating the Turkish market, signaling a potential turning point after a period of economic headwinds.
