Ukraine Intensifies Attacks on Russian Oil Infrastructure to Cripple War Funding

Ukraine Expands Drone Strikes to Caspian Sea Oil Platform, Intensifying Energy Campaign Against Russia

Ukraine has significantly escalated its campaign to disrupt Russian energy revenues, recently striking a major offshore oil platform in the Caspian Sea with long-range drones. The previously undisclosed mission marks a broadening of targets as Kyiv seeks to diminish Moscow’s ability to finance its war effort.

A source within the Security Service of Ukraine confirmed to CNN that this is the first Ukrainian attack targeting Russian oil production infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, stating it serves as “another reminder to Russia that all its companies working for the war are legitimate targets.” The Filanovsky platform, owned by Lukoil, is the largest oil field in the Russian sector of the Caspian Sea. CNN has reached out to Lukoil and the Russian Ministry of Defense for comment.

Ukraine began conducting deep strikes against Russian energy facilities earlier this year, but intensified those efforts in August, framing them as “long-range sanctions” aimed at crippling Russia’s financial lifeline. The scope of these attacks is now expanding to include not only refineries, but also oil and gas export infrastructure, pipelines, tankers, and now, offshore drilling platforms.

November saw the highest number of attacks in a single month, according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) project and CNN analysis.

This escalation comes at a critical juncture in the conflict. Recent U.S.-led peace efforts have reportedly been met with maximalist demands from Russia, while Moscow’s forces are making gains along several sections of the front line. This, coupled with a global oversupply of oil that has cushioned the market against potential price spikes, has led to increased support from Western allies for Ukraine’s campaign. The development underscores the evolving strategies employed by Ukraine as the war continues.

Ukraine Has Struck Russian Oil Facilities More Than 200 Times
Initial drone and missile strikes against Russian energy infrastructure were cautious, with concerns about potential disruptions to European oil supplies. Only 16 Ukrainian attacks targeted oil facilities in the first two years of the war. However, as markets stabilized, Ukraine ramped up its campaign.

Attacks by Ukraine Against Russian Oil Infrastructure, Since February 2022

“I think the overall strategy since the summer has been the idea that Russia can’t be allowed to retain a large portion of its energy revenues, which have fueled the enormous recruitment advantage that Moscow has over Ukraine,” said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, referring to Russia’s ability to offer high salaries and enlistment bonuses.

“So, I think it’s a more systematic effort to shut off that energy ATM.”

Repeated Attacks, Larger Targets

Between the beginning of August and the end of November, Ukraine attacked at least 77 Russian energy facilities, nearly double the total recorded in the first seven months of the year, according to ACLED. In November alone, at least 14 attacks targeted refineries and four hit Russian export terminals.

Repeatedly striking the same facilities has become a key component of the strategy. The Saratov refinery, owned by Rosneft, for example, has been hit at least eight times since early August, four of those in November.

“What used to be sporadic attacks intended to cause damage has become a sustained effort to prevent refineries from fully stabilizing,” wrote Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at the data and analytics firm Kpler, in early December.

Attacks by Ukraine Against Russian Oil Infrastructure
The attacks have hit critical oil facilities, including refineries, depots, export terminals, and pipelines. Ukrainian drones and missiles have reached deep into Russia, with the furthest strike hitting an oil refinery in Omsk, Siberia, more than 2,500 kilometers from the Ukraine-Russia border.

Attacks by Ukraine Against Russian Oil Infrastructure, Since February 2022

Dubey’s research shows that repeated attacks on Russian refineries, such as Saratov, have taken a significant amount of capacity offline and are “slowing the pace of each repair.” He also assesses that since August, Kyiv has been attempting to maximize the impact of its strikes on refineries, targeting not only “the visible parts of the refinery, but also the critical fouling systems that produce the final fuels.”

Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Berlin-based Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, who spent 25 years in the Russian oil and gas industry, told CNN he believes the initial damage inflicted by Ukraine has been manageable for Moscow, but that doesn’t account for the long-term damage from large-scale fires these attacks tend to cause.

“Metals don’t like this kind of treatment very much, and no one really knows how many heat-and-cool cycles these columns can survive,” he said.

The pattern of attacks also suggests Ukraine is no longer attempting to limit the impact to Russia’s domestic energy market. Since August, it has significantly increased attacks on Russian oil export facilities.

The ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse on the Black Sea, and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea, have been hit multiple times. Pipelines are also in the crosshairs. The Druzhba pipeline, which carries Russian oil to the few EU countries still reliant on it, has been struck five times since August, prompting protests from Hungary, which maintains good relations with Moscow.

Late in November, the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transports 80% of all Kazakh oil supplies to the Black Sea, said it had been attacked twice in four days.

The pipeline company, jointly owned by Russia, Kazakhstan, and international oil companies including Exxon (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Eni, said the second attack had destroyed one of its three mooring points for tankers. Ukraine has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack.

The terminal was shut down for two days, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, director of crude oil analysis at Kpler. The Kazakh Foreign Minister called it “an action that harms bilateral relations between the Republic of Kazakhstan and Ukraine.”

Vakulenko argues this demonstrates the risks of the expanding campaign. “I think Ukraine wants to instill fear and make it expensive for tankers to go to the Black Sea,” he said, but added, “I think with this, Ukraine doesn’t win any sympathy and may incur some costs.”

Ukraine is undeterred. On Wednesday, it carried out its third attack on another critical link in Russia’s oil supply chain – the ships that transport it to world markets. A source in the Ukrainian security services said maritime drones were used to attack a tanker sanctioned in the Black Sea, en route to Novorossisk.

The first two attacks on tankers, in late November, prompted a rare rebuke from Putin, who called them “piracy,” and Turkey summoned the Ukrainian and Russian ambassadors in protest.

“We have no instrument other than to cut the flow of money to Russia to stop this war for existence,” said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Energy Research Center in Kyiv. The fact that these sanctioned ships are there, he argued, clearly demonstrates that Western sanctions are inadequate. “So, if you can’t enforce your sanctions, maybe someone can help you,” he said.

Western Support

Two external factors have enabled Ukraine to intensify its energy attacks in recent months. First, a dramatic shift from the United States.

“It’s very hard, if not impossible, to win a war without hitting the aggressor country,” President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social in late August. In October, two sources told CNN that the U.S. had increased information sharing with Ukraine following the aborted Alaska summit between Trump and Putin, focusing on energy-related targets within Russia, in hopes of forcing Russia back to the negotiating table.

Europe is also on board. “By the end of the summer, no one in the room even mentioned that Ukraine should refrain from hitting any targets,” observed Dovilė Šakalienė, a Lithuanian parliamentarian who served as the country’s defense minister until October of this year, in written comments to CNN. “The growing perception in Europeans’ minds that Ukraine’s failure will directly affect our security within a standard parliamentary term also helped,” she added.

“The U.S. remains an active partner with respect to Ukraine’s deep strikes on Russian energy targets, while European allies have stepped up their involvement,” a source connected to Ukraine’s drone program told CNN. The increased support could influence the trajectory of the conflict.

Tracking Crude Oil Prices Since Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Prices of Brent crude oil futures, the global benchmark for oil, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The second major advantage for Ukraine has been the fall in oil prices, driven by a global oversupply.

Croft, of RBC Capital Markets, said she “can’t imagine the Trump administration, which has been so focused on bringing down gasoline prices at the retail level,” would be “so amenable” to Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy if oil prices were high.

A Western intelligence source told CNN that Ukraine is receiving additional support in this campaign “as needed” and that “the goal is for these attacks to have consequences.” Global oil markets can “withstand” it, the source added.

How Long Can Russia Hold Out?

While Russia remains defiant in peace talks, its oil sector – the largest pillar of its war financing – appears far more vulnerable than it was a year ago.

According to Dubey, the Kpler analyst, Russian refineries are processing about 6% less oil than last year. While that number may seem small, it’s disruptive for the Russians, because “they typically operate with only a small gasoline surplus,” Dubey said.

In September and October of this year, videos surfaced online of cars queuing at gas stations, and the Russian government, facing shortages in some regions, decided to ban gasoline exports until the end of the year. In late November, Putin signed a law allowing Russian companies to receive subsidies if they refine oil in Belarusian refineries and then import it back into Russia, state media reported, a measure intended to stabilize the domestic market.

Ukraine’s escalation of attacks coincided with the first new sanctions imposed on Russia since Trump returned to office in January. In October, Trump announced a full blockade of sanctions against Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

Russian Urals crude prices have gradually fallen since then to their lowest point in the war so far, according to data from Argus Media, helping to fuel a drop in Russia’s oil export revenues to their lowest level since February 2022, according to the International Energy Agency. In November, state media reported that Russia’s oil and natural gas revenues fell nearly 34% compared to the same month last year.

Vakulenko believes the attacks on Russian energy facilities are just “one piece of the puzzle” of how to pressure Putin to seek peace.

“I think the amount of economic damage that needs to be inflicted on Russia is probably greater than Ukraine can create at the moment,” he said. “I believe that, if necessary, Russia could probably survive on half of its oil and gas exports.”

For Croft, it’s a question of whether Ukraine and its allies can maintain course.

“The combination of infrastructure attacks focused on export targets and the staying power of blocking sanctions, I think could potentially bring Russia back to the negotiating table, but it has to be a sustained event,” she said.

With Trump pressing Ukraine to accept concessions, this may be a test of its appetite to do both.

Saskya Vandoorne, Victoria Butenko, Lou Robinson and Anna Chernova of CNN contributed to this reporting