Bitcoin‘s prolonged price volatility continues to draw scrutiny from industry analysts,with a new assessment suggesting a potentially extended bear market. Analyst Benjamin Cowen is projecting a possible bottom for the cryptocurrency as late as October 2026-a timeline diverging from typical post-halving recovery expectations-and sparking debate among investors. Cowen’s analysis, centered on parallels to the 2019 Bitcoin cycle and current macroeconomic headwinds, indicates the market may have peaked last October and is now entering a sustained correction phase.
Bitcoin’s bear market is back under scrutiny following an analysis suggesting the current cycle will be more prolonged and complex than many anticipate. With BTC facing structural weakness and unfavorable macroeconomic signals, analyst Benjamin Cowen projects a potential bottom in October 2026, a timeline that contrasts with the typical post-halving narrative and is sparking debate among industry observers.
Cowen’s assessment centers on recent Bitcoin behavior, which he says more closely resembles the 2019 cycle than the typical pattern of a sharp rally followed by a moderate correction. He believes the market may have already peaked in October 2025, a conclusion supported by weekly data showing key breaks below relevant moving averages. The analyst emphasizes that a lack of widespread market euphoria and a deteriorating global economy are key factors contributing to the cycle’s weakness.
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The Bitcoin Bear Market According to Cowen: Defining the Current Scenario
A Bitcoin bear market is characterized by a prolonged downtrend, declining momentum, breaches of support levels, and persistent negative sentiment. According to Cowen, the current cycle has already reached its peak and is now undergoing a corrective process that could extend for several quarters. Market movements over the past 24 hours have reflected marked volatility in risk indicators, reinforcing the possibility of a sustained bearish pattern.
Cowen estimates there is a 60–70% probability that the cycle’s high has already occurred. If Bitcoin closes a second consecutive week below the 50-week moving average, he believes that probability could rise above 80%. The market, he explains, is exhibiting similar signals to those seen in 2019: a lack of exuberance, weakness in the real economy, and a depressed Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). These factors have historically coincided with extended bear markets. He notes that while capital flows aggressively during bull phases, it is now being diluted by macroeconomic pressures.
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The analyst outlines two potential scenarios. The first mirrors previous cycles: a peak in the fourth quarter following the halving event, and a bottom one year later, placing a potential low point in October 2026. The second scenario contemplates a more moderate 50% decline from the highs, with support at the 200-week moving average, which is projected to be in the $60,000 to $70,000 range by mid-2026. This scenario would allow for an earlier bottom, potentially between May and June of 2026.
“I think this is going to last at least 6 months… but what makes the most sense to me is that, with the top in October, I would expect a bottom in October 2026. That’s how I see it, and that’s my current opinion on Bitcoin,” Cowen stated.
Historical Indicators, Previous Cycles, and Bitcoin Bottom Projection
Cowen points out that even within a Bitcoin bear market, temporary rallies back towards $100,000 are possible, but these would likely be minor peaks within a larger downtrend. He cautions that these rebounds can mislead traders expecting a definitive breakout, and recommends focusing on the weekly structure rather than short-term movements. Recent hours have shown typical fluctuations of corrective phases, with a pullback in the crypto market following unsuccessful recovery attempts.
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One of the most notable aspects of his analysis is the comparison of the performance of Strategy (MSTR) stock to previous cycles. Cowen demonstrates that its chart closely mirrors past phases, suggesting that MSTR could also continue its descent until early 2026. This parallel strengthens the hypothesis of a bottom around 98 weeks after the 2025 high, again aligning with the October 2026 timeframe.
Cowen summarizes his view, stating that the estimated duration is consistent with market history and macroeconomic indicators. He reminds investors that, as the saying goes, “bull markets make you money, bear markets make you rich,” highlighting that prolonged declines often create the best opportunities for those who analyze and prepare without rushing. This analysis arrives as Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market navigate a period of increased uncertainty.
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In Summary
Cowen’s analysis presents a scenario that calls for patience and realism. The Bitcoin bear market may not have yet reached its lowest point, and the coming quarters will be crucial in confirming this structure based on previous cycles and macroeconomic signals. The key will be to observe whether Bitcoin respects the 200-week moving average, a historically significant level for defining bottoms.
For those closely following the market, these projections offer a clear roadmap. The potential date of October 2026 serves not only as a temporal reference but also as a guide to understanding the cycle. Correctly interpreting these patterns could be the difference between uncertainty and strategic preparedness.
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