Fed Policy Shift, Trump vs Powell & Market Turmoil – Latest Updates

4:56 PM CET

JPMorgan: Fed’s Next Move Likely a Rate Hike

Hopes for near-term interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are fading as a robust U.S. labor market continues to show strength, according to JPMorgan. Several major investment banks, including Barclays and Goldman Sachs, have already revised their expectations for monetary easing, pushing forecasts from March to mid-2026. JPMorgan now anticipates the Fed will raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in the third quarter of 2027, a shift from previous expectations of a cut this month. The firm’s revised outlook reflects recent economic data.

The reassessment follows Friday’s labor market report, which showed a slowdown in job growth but also a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and solid wage gains, indicating continued resilience in the labor market. Traders are now pricing in a 95% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at its January meeting, up from 86% before the data release. This shift underscores the market’s sensitivity to labor market indicators.

4:30 PM CET

Escalating Fed Debate Could Prove Costly for U.S.

Market participants should not underestimate the implications of the ongoing debate surrounding the Federal Reserve, warns market analyst Thomas Bopp. For institutional investors, two key aspects are particularly relevant: assessing the persistence of political interference and the potential consequences for the credibility of central bank decisions. Should the independence of a central bank be structurally questioned, long-term effects on risk premiums, inflation, and growth forecasts are likely. Companies with high levels of debt could be particularly vulnerable to higher refinancing costs.

4:04 PM CET

Wall Street Slides as Trump Intensifies Fed Criticism

U.S. stock markets opened lower Monday, as investors reacted to escalating tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 49,124 points shortly after the opening bell. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.2%. The renewed conflict is being viewed as another attempt to undermine the independence of the Fed. Geopolitical concerns surrounding Iran are also contributing to market uncertainty.

The uncertainty is driving demand for safe-haven assets, with gold reaching an all-time high of $4,621 per ounce before settling at $4,597, up 1.9%. Silver prices also surged, gaining 6.1%. The moves reflect investor risk aversion amid the broader economic and political landscape.

Shares of Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Capital One all experienced significant declines. President Trump has called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates of 10%, a proposal that would impact the profitability of these companies. The average credit card interest rate in the U.S. currently stands at 19.65%, with rates on store-branded cards averaging 30.14%, according to Bankrate data.

3:46 PM CET

BioNTech/OncoC4 Receive Key FDA Status for Lung Cancer Therapy

BioNTech and U.S. biopharmaceutical company OncoC4 have received Orphan Drug Designation from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for Gotistobart. The designation applies to the treatment of squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), an aggressive subtype of lung cancer with limited treatment options at an advanced stage. The FDA grants Orphan Drug status as an incentive for developing new drugs for rare diseases or specific patient populations.

3:17 PM CET

Report: BlackRock Executive Considered for Fed Chair

U.S. President Donald Trump is reportedly considering Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive, as a potential successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to a report by Fox Business, Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer of global fixed income, is expected to meet with Trump at the White House on Thursday. The meeting will include White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Scavino.

The report indicates this is the fourth and final interview with candidates to replace Powell, whose term expires on May 15. Other finalists include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and Fed Governor Christopher Waller. Trump is expected to announce his decision in January.

2:58 PM CET

Deutsche Bank’s India Business Attracts Potential Buyers

Deutsche Bank has reportedly attracted interest from two potential buyers for its business in India. Kotak Mahindra Bank and Federal Bank have both expressed interest in the assets, which have a book value of approximately €2.5 billion, according to Bloomberg. Deutsche Bank declined to comment. The bank had previously announced plans to sell its India operations last year.

Deutsche Bank has been operating in India for over 40 years. Despite a growing number of wealthy individuals in the country, foreign banks have struggled to gain market share due to fierce competition from domestic institutions and regulatory hurdles. Some foreign banks have already sold their businesses in India.

2:31 PM CET

Mercedes-Benz Faces Challenges in China

Mercedes-Benz reported lower car sales in the fourth quarter, driven by a continued slowdown in China. The automaker sold 459,400 vehicles globally in the final three months of the year, a 12% decrease compared to the same period last year. “Overall, tariffs and the competitive market environment impacted sales,” the company said. Sales increased by 4% compared to the third quarter. Total sales for 2025 were 1.80 million vehicles, down 9% year-over-year.

Sales in China fell sharply, down 22% to 133,600 units in the fourth quarter. The U.S. market also saw a significant decline, with sales down 19% to 71,900 vehicles. In contrast, sales in Germany remained stable at 63,500 vehicles. Sales of electric vehicles were positive, with 50,400 battery-electric cars sold, a 3% increase year-over-year.

2:10 PM CET

Heineken CEO Departure Weighs on Stock

Heineken shares are down 4.7% following the announcement of CEO Dolf van den Brink’s departure. Analysts at RBC noted the move was not entirely unexpected, given that van den Brink took office with high expectations that the company has not yet met. Since his appointment on June 1, 2020, Heineken has delivered a total shareholder return (TSR) of -9%, underperforming competitors Anheuser-Busch Inbev and Carlsberg. Analysts at Jefferies do not anticipate a significant change in strategy, expecting the new CEO to focus on “disciplined execution.”

1:48 PM CET

Volkswagen Sales Dip at Year-End

Volkswagen reported a decline in global sales for the fourth quarter. The company delivered approximately 2.38 million vehicles worldwide in the final quarter, a decrease of 4.9% compared to the same period last year, Reuters reported. Sales were particularly weak in North America and China, falling 17.4% in both regions. Western Europe saw a 5.6% increase in sales to 879,800 vehicles, while Eastern Europe experienced a 5.9% rise to 151,800 vehicles. Total sales for 2025 were 8.98 million vehicles, down 0.5% year-over-year.

1:24 PM CET

Money Market Update

The European money market started the week relatively unchanged. Focus remains on renewed concerns about the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, although this has not yet had an immediate impact on the European market. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has received a subpoena from the U.S. Department of Justice. The subpoena reportedly relates to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, which Powell has dismissed as a pretext. The move is seen as an attempt to pressure the Fed to lower interest rates.

Here are the latest rates: Time deposit: 1.80 – 2.10 (1.90 – 2.07), Weekly deposit: 1.80 – 2.10 (1.90 – 2.07), 1-month deposit: 1.84 – 2.21 (1.94 – 2.12), 3-month deposit: 1.93 – 2.28 (2.03 – 2.21), 6-month deposit: 1.99 – 2.34 (2.07 – 2.27), 12-month deposit: 2.07 – 2.42 (2.18 – 2.33), Euribors: 09.07. 08.01. 3 months: 2.0190 2.0310, 6 months: 2.1160 2.1140, 12 months: 2.2510 2.2470

1:00 PM CET

BioNTech Advances Cancer Drug Pipeline

BioNTech is pushing forward with the development of its cancer drug pipeline and aims to become less reliant on its COVID-19 vaccine business. The company expects data from seven late-stage studies this year, with five potentially leading to regulatory submissions, BioNTech announced ahead of a presentation at the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco.

Financially, the company is well-equipped to fund the costly research, with approximately €17.2 billion in cash and securities as of December 31, 2025. However, the company anticipates a moderate decline in sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, Comirnaty, in the current year. Revenue from oncology products is not expected until 2026.

11:58 AM CET

Qiagen Reaffirms Billion-Euro Target

Qiagen remains on track to achieve at least €2 billion in revenue by 2028, driven by its five core growth pillars. This will also be supported by new products and the recent acquisition of U.S. biotech firm Parse Biosciences, the company said. Total revenue for 2024 was nearly €1.98 billion and is expected to grow by 4-5% at constant exchange rates.

11:48 AM CET

Stock Market 2026: Best Strategies for Investors

The stock market has started 2026 with new record highs – despite geopolitical tensions such as the U.S. attack on Venezuela. Both Wall Street and European markets have shown surprising resilience so far. But is this strong start a reliable signal for the rest of the year? Or is the calm before potential turbulence? Clearly, interest rate policy, inflation, economic conditions, and the megatrend of AI will significantly shape the capital markets in 2026. At the same time, the risk of setbacks is growing – whether through geopolitical escalations, monetary policy surprises, or overvalued valuations. Friedhelm Tilgen discusses opportunities and risks in the markets, AI as a growth driver, and sensible investment strategies for private investors with his guests Anja Schneider (Société Générale) and Michael Flender (Goldesel.de).

11:22 AM CET

Biotech Stock Soars

The prospect of a multi-billion euro takeover is driving Abivax shares higher. The French biotech firm’s stock jumped more than 30% in Paris after the newspaper “La Lettre” reported that U.S. pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly is interested in acquiring Abivax and is prepared to pay €15 billion. Abivax did not immediately comment. This was the largest single-day gain for the stock since July 23, 2025, following positive results from a late-stage study for the Obefazimod drug, used to treat ulcerative colitis.

10:58 AM CET

OmniVision IPO Sees Strong Debut in Hong Kong

Investors enthusiastically participated in OmniVision’s Hong Kong debut. Shares of the Chinese semiconductor manufacturer closed at a day’s high of HK$121.80, up more than 16% from the offer price of HK$104.80. The company raised HK$4.8 billion (€527 million) from investors as part of the secondary listing. OmniVision shares have been traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange since 2017 and rose 1.6% today.

The company said it plans to invest 70% of the proceeds in research and development, with the remainder used to fund international growth and acquisitions.

10:36 AM CET

Sentix Economic Index Improves for Germany

Investor sentiment regarding the German economy has improved slightly in January, particularly regarding growth expectations. The Sentix economic index rose to -16.4 (previous month: -22.7) points. The assessment index increased to -36.0 (minus 41.8) points, and the expectations index rose to plus 5.5 (minus 1.3) points. “At the start of the year, there is a significant improvement in economic sentiment in Germany,” said Sentix CEO Patrick Hussy, without providing a specific reason.

The Sentix economic index for the Eurozone rose to -1.8 (minus 6.2) points, with the assessment index rising to -13.0 (minus 16.5) points and the expectations index to plus 10.0 (plus 4.8) points.

“The result can be summarized as top for the USA, flop for Germany,” said Alexander Krüger, chief economist at Hauck Aufhäuser Lampe. “The USA has been able to withstand tariffs and the shutdown relatively well. Since quantity reactions are still pending due to the tariff shock, the global economic structure remains fragile.”

10:17 AM CET

Trump Threatens Barclays

Barclays shares are down 4% following a statement from U.S. President Donald Trump calling for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates of 10%. This is seen as another intervention in the U.S. economy as Trump looks ahead to the upcoming elections. The measure is also expected to negatively impact Visa, Mastercard, Capital One, and American Express, according to market strategist Neil Wilson at Saxo Markets.

9:49 AM CET

Uniper Secures Ammonia Deal from India

Uniper has signed an agreement to purchase up to 500,000 tons of ammonia annually from India. The partner is AM Green, the company said. The agreement was signed in Ahmedabad in the presence of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The first delivery is expected in 2028. For Uniper, the agreement is a significant step forward in developing a broad portfolio of renewable and low-carbon molecules for European customers. Renewable ammonia, as a raw material and potential hydrogen carrier, will help decarbonize industries such as chemicals, fertilizers, refineries, and, in the future, shipping.

9:36 AM CET

Apple Delivers Strong Results

Apple secured the top spot among smartphone vendors in 2025, according to a recent study. The U.S. company achieved a global market share of 20%, according to research firm Counterpoint. Apple benefited from strong demand in smaller markets and emerging economies. Samsung followed with a 19% share. Xiaomi reached 13% in third place. Customers in emerging markets also increased their purchases of products from these two companies.

9:18 AM CET

“Historically Unprecedented”

The Dax is starting the week with little change. The German benchmark index is currently trading around 25,250 points, after reaching a new high of 25,282 points on Friday and closing at 25,262 points. The Dax has posted gains on every trading day of the young trading year so far.

“The stock markets remain relatively calm, with rising prices in Asia, but the S&P futures point to a weaker opening on Wall Street,” commented ntv stock market correspondent Sabrina Marggraf, pointing to threats from the U.S. government against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. This is “historically unprecedented,” Marggraf added. “The dollar is reacting to this and falling. Gold is being sought as a safe haven by investors.”

8:59 AM CET

Investors Flock to Gold

The price of gold is climbing to a new all-time high as investors seek safe-haven assets amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty and investigations into U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The price of a troy ounce briefly exceeded $4,600 before settling at $4,579, up 1.6%. Other precious metals are also gaining, with silver prices rising 5.4% to $83.26 per troy ounce, also reaching a record high. The moves reflect investor risk aversion amid the broader economic and political landscape.

“The events in Iran and the potential involvement of the U.S., as well as the U.S. government’s actions against the Fed, have pushed U.S. futures lower,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “This was a green light for a gold rally.” “If the situation remains as it is, the silver price is likely to soon rise towards $90 per ounce,” said Soni Kumari, a commodity strategist at ANZ Bank. Platinum is up 3.5% to $2,351, and palladium gains 2.8% to $1,865.

8:39 AM CET

Oil Prices Rise

Oil prices are initially rising in the commodity market. Brent crude oil is up 0.3% at $63.50 per barrel. U.S. oil WTI is up 0.3% at $59.28. The unrest in Iran is supporting prices.

8:20 AM CET

Investors Ride AI Chip Wave

Asian stock markets are starting the new week with gains. A good lead from Wall Street on Friday is boosting sentiment. In Tokyo, trading is suspended due to a national holiday. In Seoul, the Kospi is up 0.8% and is on track for another all-time high. In Shanghai, it’s up 0.7%, and in Hong Kong, it’s up 0.9%. Trading in Sydney is already closed, ending the session up 0.5%.

Technology stocks with strong AI prospects and high demand for chips are in favor, recently underscored by strong numbers from TSMC. TSMC in Taipei is up 1.2%, and SK Hynix in Seoul is up 0.5%. However, U.S. index futures are down, suggesting a weaker start on Wall Street. The U.S. government’s threat of charges against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is a contributing factor.

8:03 AM CET

Dax “Massively Overbought”

European stock markets are expected to open with little change. The Dax is expected to open slightly lower at 25,240 points. “After a rally of almost 1,500 points, a consolidation day would not be unusual,” said one trader. From a technical perspective, the Dax is now “massively overbought,” according to portfolio manager Martin Zurek of QC Partners.

The environment offers little impetus: the Bund future is stable, and