The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has forecast dry conditions for most of the country from June 16 to June 22, 2026, with localized rainfall expected in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Coast, and northeastern Kenya, according to The Star. Nighttime temperatures in highland areas could drop below 10°C, while daytime highs may exceed 30°C in arid regions, the agency warned.
El Niño and IOD: Climate Drivers with Global Reach
The KMD confirmed that El Niño conditions are likely to develop between June and August 2026, with an 80–82% probability, according to Tuko News. The agency emphasized that the combined effects of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could lead to enhanced rainfall during the October–November–December season. “The IOD modulates El Niño’s impact in Kenya, with a positive phase historically linked to heavy rains in October–December,” said KMD’s Acting Director of Meteorological Services, Edward Muriuki, per The Star. The IOD is currently neutral but could shift to a positive phase later in 2026, increasing flood risks.
Regional Weather Variability: Cold Spells and Dry Conditions
Nairobi and other highland regions face cold nights, with temperatures dropping as low as 13°C, while northeastern Kenya could hit 38°C, reported Kenyans.co.ke. The Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, will experience cloudy mornings with occasional rains, while the Coast and southeastern lowlands remain sunny. “Most parts of the country are expected to be generally dry, but some regions will see rainfall,” the KMD stated, as cited by The Star.
Agricultural and Economic Stakes: A Divided Rainfall Pattern
The KMD’s forecast highlights a stark geographic divide: western Kenya, including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley and Lake Victoria Basin, faces suppressed rainfall, while the Coast and eastern regions may see above-average precipitation. This disparity threatens Kenya’s agricultural sector, which contributes significantly to GDP and employs most of the rural workforce. “A deficit in western rainfall could reduce maize and wheat harvests, exacerbating food insecurity,” noted StreamlineFeed. Farmers in the western highlands are advised to adopt drought-resistant crops, while coastal communities prepare for flood risks.
Future Outlook: Flood Risks and Climate Preparedness
By October–December 2026, the KMD predicts enhanced rainfall due to the interplay of El Niño and a potential positive IOD, raising flood risks. “The combined effects could lead to catastrophic flooding in coastal and low-lying areas,” warned Farmers Review Africa. The agency has urged residents to stockpile emergency supplies and for authorities to reinforce infrastructure. “We will issue the OND seasonal forecast in late August or early September,” KMD said, per the report.
“The KMD’s warnings underscore the urgent need for climate resilience strategies,” said a source familiar with the agency’s work. “Without coordinated action, both droughts and floods could destabilize Kenya’s economy and ecosystems.”
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