Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was taken into U.S. custody January 3, 2026, facing drug trafficking and other criminal charges following a U.S. military operation, a move that dramatically escalates tensions with both Venezuela and Russia. The arrest of Maduro, who has ruled Venezuela since 2013, raises questions about the extent of Russian influence in Latin America and the Biden administrationS approach to regional security [[1]]. As of January 7, Moscow’s response has been limited to expressions of concern and demands for negotiation, signaling a potential shift in the relationship between Russia and the U.S.amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is in custody in New York, facing drug trafficking charges following a U.S. military operation. The arrest, which occurred January 3, 2026, marks a dramatic turn in the relationship between Venezuela, Russia, and the United States, and raises questions about the limits of Russian influence in the Western Hemisphere.
Maduro and his wife were taken into custody by U.S. forces, according to reports, and will be prosecuted on multiple charges including drug trafficking. The move comes after years of increasing tensions between the Maduro regime and Washington, and despite public displays of support from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Russian Response Limited to Concern
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Four days after Maduro’s arrest, Putin has remained publicly silent. The Russian Foreign Ministry has expressed concern and demanded the release of Maduro and his wife, calling for negotiations between the United States and Venezuela.
The arrest follows a period of close ties between Caracas and Moscow. Maduro was one of the few world leaders to openly support Russia in February 2022, when Putin recognized the separatist republics of Donetsk and Lugansk prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In December 2018, Russia sent two Tu-160 strategic bombers to Venezuela for joint military exercises, widely seen as a show of support for Maduro’s government.
During a visit to Moscow in May 2025 for Victory Day celebrations, Maduro publicly praised Putin, calling Russia “a key power for humanity.” The two leaders signed an agreement for “strategic partnership and cooperation” at that time.
Experts Question Russia’s Commitment to Venezuela
Analysts suggest Russia’s support for Venezuela has been largely symbolic. “Russian support for Venezuela has been more symbolic than practical,” Neil Melvin, an expert at the Royal United Services Institute, told DW. He added that Russia is unlikely to challenge a U.S. military operation in the region.
Felix Riefer, a German political scientist and author specializing in Russian foreign policy, believes Moscow had already distanced itself from Maduro. He pointed to a growing rapprochement between Moscow and Washington under the Trump administration, stating, “Russia had already abandoned Maduro before.”
Both experts attribute this shift, in part, to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the United States’ role as a mediator. Melvin suggests Moscow is avoiding strong criticism of Washington to avoid further isolating itself.
While the immediate impact on the war in Ukraine appears limited, Melvin cautioned that could change if the Trump administration expands its intervention, potentially targeting Greenland, which is part of Denmark. He believes a NATO response would be unlikely in the event of an annexation.
Cautious Optimism in Ukraine
Ukrainian experts are cautiously optimistic about the developments. Markets anticipate a normalization of relations between the U.S. and Venezuela, which could open Venezuela’s oil reserves and significantly impact the global economy and oil prices, according to Petro Oleshchuk, a political scientist at the National University of Kyiv.
“Anything that lowers oil prices is beneficial for Ukraine and could have a positive effect on negotiations. The cheaper oil is, the less money Russia has at its disposal. This will make the idea of Russia being willing to wage an endless war increasingly unbelievable,” Oleshchuk said.
Some observers are also questioning whether the U.S. military operation in Venezuela could “weaken” Washington’s standing as a proponent of democratic principles. Oleshchuk argues the detention of Maduro aligns with the long-held U.S. doctrine that the Western Hemisphere falls within its sphere of influence.
He emphasized that there is no comparison between Maduro’s arrest and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. “In the case of Venezuela, the United States is not annexing any territory or claiming that Venezuela is a fictitious state.”
Russia’s International Standing Diminishing
“A direct comparison is not valid,” agreed Felix Riefer, who believes Moscow’s global reputation has suffered. “Anyone who bets on Russia can no longer expect its protection.”
Neil Melvin added that Russia has lost key allies in recent years, including Armenia, Syria, and now Venezuela. “Russia’s international position is weakening considerably, as it intensifies its war against Ukraine and no longer has the resources to maintain these relationships,” he said.
Even Cuba, Russia’s closest ally in Latin America, may see a more forceful response from Moscow, though Melvin believes Russia’s options are “very limited.” Cuba is a country where President Donald Trump has recently increased verbal pressure.
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