Most U.S. Consumers Predict Economic Weakness in Coming Year, Deloitte Survey Finds

A new annual survey reveals that a majority of U.S. consumers anticipate the economy will weaken over the next 12 months, signaling a potential shift in consumer spending habits that could impact overall economic growth.

According to the survey, published today, October 18, 2025, 57% of roughly 4,000 respondents expect a softening economy – the highest level recorded since Deloitte began tracking this sentiment in 1997. This marks a significant increase from the 30% who felt the same way last year and surpasses even the 54% recorded during the 2008 Great Recession. Consumers also anticipate continued inflation, with 77% expecting higher prices on holiday items this Christmas season, up from 69% in 2024.

The survey indicates a pullback in planned holiday spending, with consumers intending to spend an average of $1,595 this season, a decrease of over 10% from the $1,778 they planned to spend last year. This reduction in spending is widespread across income levels and generations, but is most pronounced among younger demographics. Notably, Gen Z consumers (ages 18-28) plan to spend 34% less, while Millennials (ages 29-44) intend to spend 13% less. You can find more information about Gross Domestic Product from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

“We’ve been talking about the resilient consumer for a while now…This outlook is starting to suggest that we’re getting towards the end of that resilience,” said Brian McCarthy, retail strategy leader for Deloitte. McCarthy attributed the tighter budgets of Gen Z to concerns about the job market and a lack of established savings. Understanding consumer credit is also important in understanding these trends, according to the Federal Reserve.

Deloitte officials say they will continue to monitor consumer sentiment and spending patterns as the holiday season approaches to assess the potential impact on the broader economy.