A new round of diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in Ukraine is underway, complicated by a Trump administration peace proposal reportedly viewed favorably by Moscow and concerns among European allies. While Ukrainian and European officials are cautiously assessing the plan, its success hinges on Russia’s willingness to compromise – a prospect analysts deem unlikely given President Vladimir Putin‘s current strategy. According to sources,Putin appears to be betting on continued pressure and a potential weakening of Ukrainian resolve as he pursues maximalist demands,including guarantees against NATO expansion and protections for russian interests within Ukraine.
Ukrainian and European officials breathed a cautious sigh of relief as they worked to address a potentially disruptive peace proposal from former U.S. President Trump, one seen as favorable to the Kremlin. However, the future of any diplomatic efforts hinges on the willingness of Russian President Vladimir Putin to compromise, according to reports.
Putin has signaled his readiness to prolong the conflict despite battlefield losses and economic strain, aiming to compel Ukraine to accept terms that would effectively place the nation under Russian control. The situation underscores the precarious state of negotiations and the significant obstacles to a peaceful resolution.
Analysts suggest Putin currently sees little incentive to soften his stance. Ukraine is steadily ceding territory, grappling with a corruption scandal, and facing dwindling resources – both in terms of soldiers and financial support – alongside waning patience from the United States.
For the Russian leader, waiting for a broader collapse of Ukraine could yield even greater concessions
As Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian infrastructure and incrementally seize more territory, Putin believes he will ultimately achieve his objectives, “if not now, then in six months, if not in six months, then in a year,” said Tatiana Stanovaya.
Putin has demanded legally binding guarantees preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, a commitment to halt the alliance’s eastward expansion, limitations on Ukraine’s military capabilities, and special protections for the Russian language and the Russian Orthodox Church within Ukraine. Discussions held earlier this year in Alaska focused on Russia’s desire to fully annex the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, including areas currently under Ukrainian control.
European officials have recently expressed concern over aspects of the proposed plan that would restrict NATO and grant Moscow greater influence over European security, prompting American officials to address these issues separately. Ukraine insists that the current front lines should serve as the basis for territorial negotiations and has questioned the proposed limitations on its military strength.
Moscow has dismissed recent European counterproposals as unproductive, asserting that any plan deviating from the core agreements reached between the U.S. and Russia during the Alaska summit is destined to fail.
There are indications that Putin may even find the initial 28-point plan, which drew criticism for its perceived pro-Russian bias, unacceptable. He stated the plan could serve as a foundation for a peace agreement, but would require substantial further discussion.
His chief foreign policy advisor, Yuri Ushakov, noted that many of the positions were acceptable, “but not all.” For example, the proposed restrictions on Ukraine’s military power are more lenient than those Moscow previously suggested during failed negotiations in 2022. The American plan does not impose limitations on Ukrainian military equipment and calls for the use of frozen Russian sovereign funds in Europe for Ukraine’s reconstruction – factors that could prove problematic for Putin.
The Kremlin announced that Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will return to Moscow next week to discuss the details. Trump announced the visit on social media, adding that the U.S. Secretary of the Army, Daniel P. Driscoll, will meet with Ukrainian officials.
While Putin has indicated a willingness to continue the war, the Russian leader is also interested in fostering closer ties with Trump,
potentially leading to sanctions relief, economic cooperation, and broader geopolitical advantages. Analysts believe Putin is attracted to this prospect, but will not sacrifice his core military objectives to achieve it.
Russia is also facing a Ukrainian campaign targeting its oil and military infrastructure, which Trump had previously threatened to support by supplying long-range “Tomahawk” missiles before reversing course.
Moscow may be hoping that if the current round of diplomatic negotiations fails to yield a peace agreement, it will prompt the U.S. to withdraw support for Ukraine, potentially accelerating Ukraine’s collapse.
“Putin still wants everything,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But the main thing he wants is for Ukraine to be in his orbit. And if he can’t have Ukraine, no one can.”
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