Thai Stock Market Outlook: Trinity Securities Predicts Volatility, Sets Q2 Range
Bangkok – Trinity Securities anticipates a fluctuating Thai stock market in the second quarter of 2024, with the SET Index expected to trade between 1,260 and 1,530 points. The firm’s analysis, released on April 2, 2024, suggests that company earnings reports will be a key driver of market performance. This comes as investors navigate ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and their potential impact on corporate profits.
According to Trinity Securities, a critical price range for the SET Index in Q2 will be between 1,390 and 1,400 points. In a worst-case scenario, the index could fall to between 1,260 and 1,290 points, while the highest potential level remains at the previously projected resistance of 1,530 points. The firm notes that the Thai market’s exposure to energy, petrochemicals, and commodities should provide some resilience against broader economic headwinds.
“The movement of the SET Index in the next period will depend on the development of the earnings of listed companies,” stated Natachart Mehkamasin, Senior Assistant Managing Director of Trinity Securities’ analytical department. He added that market valuation multiples appear to be stabilizing, with expectations that the Bank of Thailand will maintain its current policy interest rate.
The outlook aligns with broader market expectations, as Maybank has as well issued a target of 1,500 points for the SET Index this year, despite pressure from rising oil prices. As reported by ผู้จัดการออนไลน์, the Q2 outlook is supported by anticipated government measures and continued capital inflows.
Analysts also anticipate Thailand’s GDP growth of 1.72% in 2024, but caution that the ongoing conflict and oil price fluctuations could weigh on the market. According to ข่าวสด, this could lead to the SET closing at 1,516 points.
Trinity Securities has identified four sectors as potential “safe havens” for investors: telecommunications, hospitals, essential retail, and industrial estates. As detailed in posttoday, a selective approach within these sectors is recommended.
The assessment from Trinity Securities provides investors with a framework for navigating the anticipated volatility in the Thai stock market during the second quarter of 2024. The firm’s focus on earnings reports and identification of defensive sectors underscores the importance of a cautious and selective investment strategy.
