Bangkok’s benchmark SET Index is expected to experience continued volatility as investors weigh weak domestic economic data against global monetary policy. Analysts predict a narrow trading range of 1,270 to 1,290 points on November 18, following a third-quarter GDP report that missed expectations and growing concerns about delayed interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve [[1]]. Multiple brokerages are advising a strategic focus on value stocks amid potential shifts away from the technology sector, though the geopolitical dynamic with neighboring Cambodia is also being monitored for potential market impacts.
Thai shares are expected to trade in a sideways pattern on November 18, with analysts projecting a range of 1,270 to 1,290 points. The outlook comes as lower-than-expected third-quarter GDP data for Thailand combines with a more hawkish stance on potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Investors are also monitoring the evolving relationship between Thailand and Cambodia, though the economic impact on listed companies is expected to be limited.
November 18, 2024 – Kasikorn Securities (บล.กสิกรไทย) anticipates a sideways to slightly downward trend for Thai stocks today, forecasting movement within the 1,270-1,285 point range. This expectation reflects both domestic and international factors, including the recent Thai GDP report for the third quarter of 2024, which fell short of forecasts, and a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve will be less inclined to lower interest rates in the near future.
InnovestX Securities (บล.อินโนเวสท์ เอกซ์) also predicts a sideways trading day with potential for consolidation. The brokerage highlights the Thailand-Cambodia relationship as a potential psychological factor for the market, though it believes the overall economic and corporate earnings impact will remain contained. The probability of a December rate cut by the Fed has decreased to 43%, potentially reducing capital inflows into emerging markets, including Thailand, in the coming period.
From a technical perspective, the market has shown some rebound after testing the 1,265 level. However, analysts caution that a sustained move above 1,285/1,295 points is needed to confirm the rally. Downward support is seen at 1,270/1,255 points.
Pai Partners (บล.พาย) estimates the SET Index will fluctuate between 1,270 and 1,290 points. The firm anticipates potential pressure from technology stocks, particularly DELTA, but doesn’t expect this to be a significant drag on the market, as funds may rotate into value stocks in sectors like ICT, banking, and healthcare – mirroring recent outperformance in the U.S. markets in the communications, health, and real estate sectors.
Strategically, investors are advised to focus on value stocks for short-term gains. Recommended holdings include banks such as SCB and KTB, hospitals like BDMS, financial firms including MTC, retailers like CPALL, shopping centers such as CPN, and tourism-related companies MINT and CENTEL.
