Despite a recent slight easing in the November Consumer Price Index to 2.7% [[1]], market expectations point to substantial inflationary pressure continuing well into 2025. New survey data indicates a broad consensus among market participants that price increases will remain elevated, potentially impacting economic growth and Federal Reserve policy. This report details those expectations, revealing the range and concentration of forecasts for CPI increases through December 2025, as investors closely monitor economic indicators [[3]].
Inflation Expectations Point to Continued Price Increases
Market participants anticipate continued inflationary pressure, with the majority expecting price increases to fall within the 22.00% to 24.99% range over the next 12 months. This outlook reflects ongoing concerns about the persistence of elevated prices and their potential impact on economic growth.
According to recent survey data, 64.42% of respondents predict that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will rise between 22.00% and 24.99% by December 2025. A further 18.15% foresee an increase in the 25.00% to 27.99% range. The report underscores investors’ focus on inflation data as they assess the future path of monetary policy.
Breaking down the expectations further, 13.66% of those surveyed estimate a probability of inflation landing between 19.00% and 21.99%. Point estimates reveal that 11.29% of participants share this expectation, while 66.13% anticipate a rise between 22.00% and 24.99%, and 16.13% project an increase between 25.00% and 27.99%.
These forecasts suggest a broad consensus that inflation will remain elevated, although there is some divergence regarding the magnitude of future price increases. The decision highlights ongoing market volatility as economic actors navigate a complex inflationary environment.
