U.S. Goods Economy Appears in Recession, Freight Data Indicates

Freight data reveals the U.S. economy is currently experiencing a significant downturn in the movement of goods, potentially signaling a broader economic recession despite recent stock market gains.

Analysis of high-frequency freight data shows a sharp decline in demand, with the Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI.USA) currently around 9,420 – a level not seen since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic and down 18% year-over-year. This coincides with a drop in truck driver employment to approximately 1.523 million, mirroring pre-pandemic levels. The decline is particularly pronounced in long-haul trucking, where volumes have fallen by a staggering 30% year-over-year, impacting sectors like energy, manufacturing, and housing. This slowdown in goods movement can lead to reduced manufacturing output and potential job losses.

The current situation follows a period of volatility, including a “trucking blood bath” recession in 2019, a pandemic-induced boom in 2021-2022, and a previous downturn beginning in March 2022. While a brief recovery appeared in late 2024, the downward trend resumed sharply in 2025. The velocity of money has slowed considerably since Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2022, further exacerbating the issue. For context, the Federal Reserve continues to monitor economic indicators to inform monetary policy.

However, some relief may be on the horizon. Recent administrative crackdowns on unqualified truck drivers could remove as much as 17% of excess capacity from the market – potentially up to 600,000 drivers over the next two years – according to a recent post by J.B. Hunt. This capacity reduction could ultimately end the prolonged downturn in the freight sector, regardless of broader economic conditions.

Officials are continuing to assess the freight data and its implications for overall economic health, with further analysis expected in the coming weeks.