Costa Rica has kicked off the 2026 election cycle in Latin America with the first-round victory of 39-year-old conservative candidate Laura Fernández.
The continuation of right-leaning governance in the Central American nation reinforces a trend seen in recent months across the region, including the win of José Antonio Kast in Chile, the success of Milei in Argentina’s midterm elections, and the hard-fought victory of Nasry “Tito” Asfura in Honduras, backed by Donald Trump.
Following the elections in Costa Rica, further elections are anticipated in three South American countries: Peru, Colombia, and Brazil. Elections are also planned for Haiti on August 30, though their feasibility depends on the country’s ongoing situation, as the Provisional Electoral Council has stated that without security and financial resources, the elections cannot proceed.
The extent to which Donald Trump will attempt to influence the outcomes of upcoming Latin American elections, as he did in Honduras and Argentina, remains to be seen. The pressure Trump exerts on Venezuela and Cuba could impact voter sentiment, potentially influencing support for or opposition to candidates espousing Trump-aligned rhetoric due to the Republican’s interference in the region.
Perú: elections in a “State captured by Parliament”
Peru will hold presidential and legislative elections on April 12. A potential runoff election is scheduled for June 7. A rise in crime is a key issue for voters in a country that has experienced political instability over the last decade, with as many as seven presidents. Two presidents were removed from office during the last legislative term.
Changes to electoral rules have led to a coalition of right-wing and far-right organizations, including the Fujimorismo, which effectively governs Peru from Congress. “The electoral process is taking place in the context of a State captured by Parliament,” explained lawyer and political analyst Juan de la Puente to DW. “The main trend in the electoral process is the re-election of this, what I call ‘hybrid regime,’ with one foot in illegality and the other in legality.”
“Democracy indices have detected in recent years that Peru has lost its balance of powers and that illegal economies have infiltrated power. The Constitution has been modified several times without deliberation, including once to reinstate bicameralism,” De La Puente underscored.
This environment has resulted in a proliferation of candidates – a record 36 – suggesting a fragmented vote. This fragmentation benefits groups linked to illicit interests, who would attempt to maintain privileges by controlling political sectors and lawmakers.
“In the public sphere, there is a polarization between a majority group, which has captured the State and has a relationship with economic power, and a country that resists,” explained Juan de la Puente. This has led to widespread political disaffection: “There is an insubordinate society, hostile to power. We have a country that is anti-electoral, with almost 50 percent of Peruvians who have decided not to vote 60 days before the elections.”
Colombia: polarization and violence
Colombia will hold legislative elections and inter-party consultations to select presidential candidates on March 8. The presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, with a potential runoff on June 21.
Polarization between supporters and opponents of current President Petro is guaranteed. “I don’t remember other elections with so many candidates. Many of them do not have very concrete proposals or that differentiate them from each other. It’s a kind of ego struggle,” political analyst Elisabeth Ungar Bleier told DW. “So far, the two candidates in the polls with the most options are Iván Cepeda, Petro’s successor, and, Abelardo de la Espriella, an extreme right-wing candidate, which has generated immense polarization,” she added.
Violence is also shaping the political and electoral agenda in Colombia. “With the assassination of soldiers, police officers, and social leaders, many people will prefer to vote for Abelardo de la Espriella, just so that Petro’s legacy does not continue,” explained Elisabeth Ungar. The expert referred to a recent editorial in the newspaper El Espectador that provides precise figures on the number of municipalities where candidates have received threats, kidnappings, or physical violence from criminal groups attempting to control the electoral process.
Meanwhile, the strength of Uribismo appears to be waning. “The power and influence of Uribe have diminished. It is not even guaranteed that the current Uribismo candidate, Paloma Valencia, will ultimately be a candidate,” Ungar pointed out.
Brazil: Lula as the favorite
Brazil will hold elections on October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25. It is not certain whether the son of convicted former President Bolsonaro will be the candidate of the right, which arrives at the elections very divided, though Bolsonaro’s supporters still carry weight.
This division could favor the re-election for a fourth time of current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who will turn 81 in October. Polls currently place him as the frontrunner.
