The biden administration has presented Ukraine with a detailed, 28-point proposal for a potential peace agreement with Russia, injecting a new sense of urgency – and complication – into the nearly two-year-old conflict. While intended too foster a resolution, the plan, reportedly including significant territorial concessions from Ukraine and limitations on its military size, has sparked immediate backlash from Kyiv and raised concerns among European allies. President Trump’s subsequent imposition of a Thursday deadline for Ukraine’s acceptance further intensifies the pressure on Zelenskyy’s government as it navigates a pivotal moment with profound implications for its sovereignty and future security.
The Biden administration has presented Ukraine with a 28-point peace proposal aimed at ending the war with Russia, but Kyiv faces a rapidly approaching deadline to respond. The move comes as international efforts to find a resolution to the conflict intensify, and underscores the complex diplomatic challenges facing Ukraine.
U.S. officials, led by Under Secretary of Defense Daniel Driscoll, recently outlined the plan to Ukrainian counterparts in Kyiv. Details of the proposal quickly emerged in media reports, revealing a series of potentially difficult concessions for Ukraine.
On Friday, President Trump announced a deadline of Thursday for Ukraine to accept the U.S. proposal, according to a report from Fox News. The demand adds significant pressure on Kyiv as it weighs its options.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated Friday that he is willing to work constructively with the U.S. on the peace plan, but stressed that Ukraine will not compromise its national interests. He suggested that accepting the current U.S. terms would mean sacrificing either Ukraine’s dignity or a key ally. Zelenskyy described the situation as a “very difficult decision” for Ukraine.
The Ukrainian leader announced plans to present “alternatives” to the U.S. proposal, and called for unity among Ukrainians during what he described as one of the most challenging moments in the country’s history.
Working on Counter-Proposal
European leaders also appeared to have been caught off guard by the U.S. plan. Following a phone conversation between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer with Zelenskyy, a German government spokesperson stated that all four leaders welcomed the U.S. efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
However, they also agreed “that any agreement concerning the European states, the European Union or NATO requires the consent of the European partners or a consensus of the allies,” according to a written statement.
Ukraine, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom are now working on a counter-proposal, Reuters reported Friday, citing three sources familiar with the matter. Merz also reportedly spoke with Trump and intends to inform other European partners to coordinate further steps.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to negotiations following the presentation of the U.S. plan. He suggested the plan could serve as a basis for a peaceful resolution, during a meeting of Russia’s National Security Council. He confirmed for the first time that he had been presented with the text, describing it as an updated version of proposals previously discussed, including at a meeting with Trump in Alaska in August. Putin stated that the points now need to be discussed in detail.
U.S. Plan Envisions Territorial Concessions and Reduced Military
The new U.S. government plan for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine includes numerous proposals that would likely be difficult for Kyiv to accept. The draft reportedly includes stipulations such as Ukraine foregoing NATO membership, limiting its army to 600,000 soldiers, and making permanent territorial concessions.
The plan would effectively recognize Russian control over Crimea, as well as the already occupied Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. The partially Russian-controlled regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine would be divided along current front lines, according to the proposal.
Security Guarantees Under Discussion
In exchange, Ukraine would receive security guarantees from the U.S., which would be compensated for providing them, according to Axios. The draft reportedly includes a clause modeled after Article 5 of the NATO treaty.
A “significant, intentional and sustained armed attack” by Russia across the ceasefire line would be considered an attack threatening transatlantic peace, Axios reported. NATO members would commit to acting jointly with the U.S. in the event of such a violation. The agreement would be valid for ten years after signing.
Reisner: U.S. Guarantees Key to 28-Point Plan
Military expert Markus Reisner viewed the proposed U.S. security guarantees as central to the 28-point plan. He explained that it is “reasonable to assume that Russia will in any case adhere to its goal (of complete subjugation of Ukraine),” according to a report from the APA.
The conditions for maintaining the guarantee are designed differently for Kyiv and Moscow, Reisner added. While the case of Russia refers vaguely to a renewed attack, a rocket launch by Ukraine on Moscow or St. Petersburg would be enough to invalidate the guarantees. “That could also be a false flag operation by Russia,” Reisner cautioned, suggesting a possible provocation.
Reisner said Ukraine is currently under pressure on several fronts. Russia is advancing “slowly but steadily” on several fronts, there is an energy crisis, and a major corruption scandal involving the misappropriation of funds intended to strengthen the energy infrastructure. “If Ukraine does not agree, the situation could worsen in a few months,” Reisner said.
Russia Expert: U.S. Peace Plan “Very Risky”
Russia expert Gerhard Mangott analyzes the U.S. peace plan for Ukraine. He describes the plan as “very risky” for Kyiv.
Mangott: Plan “Very Risky” for Zelenskyy
For Zelenskyy, the plan is “very risky,” said political scientist Gerhard Mangott in an interview with ORF-III. He also noted that the U.S. has a “very aggressive timeline,” leaving “not much room for negotiation for Ukraine.” For the Russian side, the plan does not create “major hurdles,” and Russia could be “very satisfied” with it, according to the expert.
