Argentina’s political landscape is rapidly reshaping as President javier Milei’s Liberty Advances (LLA) coalition asserts its newfound dominance in the national legislature and key provincial governments. Following recent legislative sessions and power plays in Buenos Aires province, the traditionally powerful Peronist bloc finds itself diminished and fractured, while even opposition factions like those led by Mauricio Macri are navigating internal tensions with the ruling coalition. This shift comes as Milei prepares to push through sweeping economic and labor reforms, and observers are closely watching how both allies and rivals will respond to his assertive leadership-and the potential for missteps-in the months ahead. The upcoming debates over the 2026 budget will be a critical test of this new balance of power.
Argentina’s political landscape is undergoing a significant shift, marked by a display of power dynamics within the nation’s legislature and executive branches. Recent sessions in the Chamber of Deputies and the Buenos Aires Provincial Legislature have revealed a changing balance of forces, with a new ruling coalition asserting its dominance.
The shift was particularly evident during the swearing-in of new deputies, where President Javier Milei received a standing ovation while opposition members faced hostility. This contrasted sharply with the previous composition of Congress, where the Liberty Advances (LLA) party held a minority position and Milei initially distanced himself from the legislative process two years ago.
The LLA’s rise to prominence, bolstered by defections from the PRO and UCR parties, as well as support from the Catamarca province’s Peronist faction—which left the Union for the Homeland (UP) bloc—was on full display during the contentious swearing-in ceremony. The ruling coalition openly celebrated its newfound strength, seemingly unfazed by the provocations directed at its rivals.
This display of power is seen as a prelude to upcoming extraordinary sessions where the 2026 budget and crucial labor and fiscal reforms will be debated. Sources suggest that the ruling coalition is likely to prevail in these sessions, though allies and governors may seek to introduce modifications, particularly regarding revenue and expenditure calculations.
Even staunch Kirchnerists acknowledge the likelihood of the ruling coalition’s success. The shift underscores the Peronist movement’s diminished influence, currently holding its smallest institutional representation in Congress and governorships since the restoration of democracy 42 years ago. The movement is also grappling with a leadership crisis, the imprisonment of a popular leader, and a lack of consensus around potential successors.
The defection of only three UP bloc deputies, representing negotiator Raúl Jalil of Catamarca, was viewed as a victory by Peronist leaders. “After that predictable departure, we ultimately have 93 deputies in a single bloc. That’s a lot, because we could have ended up divided into three,” said an individual close to Cristina and Máximo Kirchner.
Similar sentiments were expressed within the Massa faction, where Cecilia Moreau’s ratification as first vice president of the Chamber was seen as a positive outcome. After nearly two decades of dominance, the Peronist-Kirchnerist alliance is now celebrating even minor achievements.
The situation in the Buenos Aires Provincial Legislature highlighted the challenges facing the Peronist government. Governor Axel Kicillof faced significant opposition during the debate over the province’s debt proposal, ultimately requiring concessions to secure its approval. The expansion of the Banco Provincia (Bapro) board and the exchange of positions within the financially troubled province reflected both the internal conflicts within the Peronist-Kirchnerist alliance and a transactional approach to public finances.
The approval of the debt renegotiation, though not the new borrowing, also sparked a new conflict between the Macri faction and the Milei administration, with some strategic maneuvering from the Kicillof government. “What happened in La Plata is always the same: vote trading for positions. This is how provincial legislatures work. The discussions are more transactional than the negotiations in Congress, where party affiliation, ideology, or provincial interests prevail. In reality, there’s more of a commotion within the Peronist movement than there actually is,” minimized a prominent Kirchnerist source.
However, Kicillof’s inner circle believes the dispute with the Kirchnerist and La Cámpora factions is irreparable, and they see this space as actively working to undermine the governor’s chances of becoming the Peronist presidential candidate in 2027. They also believe the Massa faction is contributing to the tensions, seeking to secure positions within the Bapro and potentially position Massa as a future presidential option.
“The internal situation is terrible. Axel had his governability put to the test and had to concede. The issue is that they consider him the enemy because they don’t have any viable candidates and are trying to weaken him so he submits,” said an influential source within the Kicillof camp. The intensity of the dispute and the weakness of the Peronist movement have led some officials in Buenos Aires to wryly compare the situation to “cannibalism among pygmies.” The once-powerful Kirchnerist movement risks self-destruction in its decline.
Recognizing the high probability of further defeats in Congress regarding Milei’s initiatives, the Peronist movement is looking beyond the next three months. March is seen as a potential turning point, though they acknowledge their fate largely depends on external factors. “The real economic situation is very critical and cannot be sustained for much longer. We have to wait until the second quarter. Those who are allies or functional today will likely have to reassess their positions. The same goes for society. We trust the government’s ability to make mistakes and the negative effects of its economic policies, which will begin to be felt,” said a Peronist source with contacts within the massismo and Kicillof administration.
The Peronist strategy hinges on the potential missteps of the current administration, while they attempt to develop alternative proposals without appearing solely as opponents of all government reforms. However, these efforts remain tentative. The challenges extend beyond the Peronist movement, as the Macri faction also encountered a conflict with the LLA over positions on the Bapro board. Through a maneuver led by Cristian Ritondo, the opposition retained those positions, preventing them from going to the libertarians. This created friction with Diego Santilli, the new Minister of the Interior in the Milei administration.
The relationship has been strained since Patricia Bullrich’s successful effort to reduce the size of the PRO bloc in the Chamber of Deputies. “They shouldn’t complain about the Bapro, just as we didn’t complain when they harmed us during the list closures or when they came to buy deputies,” argued sources close to Ritondo. This is just the beginning. The Milei administration is now enjoying its renewed power, observing the internal struggles within the opposition.
