Brazil’s economic growth slowed to 0.1% in the third quarter of 2025, according to newly released data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). While the economy continues to expand, the latest figure slightly missed analyst expectations and represents a deceleration from previous quarters. The report reveals a mixed performance across key sectors, with industry and agriculture outpacing services and household consumption, and comes as policymakers balance efforts to control inflation with sustaining economic momentum.
Brazil’s economy grew 0.1% in the third quarter, according to data released today by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). While marking continued expansion, the figure fell short of analyst expectations, with the median forecast predicting a 0.2% increase based on a Valor Data survey. Year-over-year growth reached 1.8%.
The industrial sector led growth, expanding by 0.8% compared to the second quarter. Service activity saw a more modest increase of 0.1%, while the agricultural sector grew 0.4%. Gross fixed capital formation, a key indicator of investment, rose 0.9% between the two quarters, reaching an investment rate of 17.3% of GDP when compared to the same period last year.
Household consumption edged up 0.1% during the period, while government spending increased by 1.3%. Exports also contributed to growth, rising 3.3%, alongside a 0.3% increase in imports.
The IBGE also revised the second quarter GDP growth figure downward, from an initial estimate of 0.4% to 0.3%.
The statistical agency updated seasonally adjusted series data for the first quarter of 2025, revising growth upward from 1.3% to 1.5%. It also adjusted the fourth quarter of 2024 forecast from a 0.1% increase to a 0.1% contraction, and the third quarter of 2024 from 0.8% to 0.9%.
The third-quarter results were characterized by stronger-than-expected performance in agriculture and industry, while service sector growth and household consumption lagged behind expectations. This mixed performance reflects the ongoing complexities of the Brazilian economy.
Government demand and gross fixed capital formation also contributed to the overall growth. Exports grew in line with forecasts, but import growth was slightly weaker.
Looking at the supply side, industry expanded by 0.8% in the third quarter, exceeding the Valor Data forecast of 0.3%.
The service sector’s expansion was limited to 0.1%, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase.
Agriculture, however, posted a significant gain of 0.4% in the third quarter, substantially above the median projection of a 1.8% decline.
Brazil’s financing needs for the economy closed the third quarter of 2025 at R$ 104.8 billion, a decrease of 2.42% from the R$ 107.4 billion recorded in the same period last year.
According to the IBGE, the primary driver of this decline was the improvement in the external balance of goods and services, which shifted from a negative R$ 9.1 billion in the third quarter of 2024 to a positive R$ 3.2 billion between July and September of this year. This change had a positive impact of R$ 12.3 billion on the balance of goods and services.
An increase of R$ 10.3 billion in net property income received from abroad also contributed to reducing the financing needs, reaching R$ 115.7 billion in the third quarter, compared to R$ 105.4 billion in the same period last year.
